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For the global polypropylene spunbond nonwovens market in 2020, the impact of the new crown outbreak can be said to be huge. This market has experienced a year of various opportunities and challenges. In the context of slowing economic growth in many parts of the world, new production lines representing the most advanced technology have been put into production, and the resulting new production capacity is entering the market. The economy is expected to slow after a long period of growth, which is further exacerbated by trade tensions and tariffs between the United States and China. This, coupled with the low birth rate and medical concerns about the novel coronavirus, has further increased the pressure on capacity utilization to enter the market. In addition, companies will face the challenge of adopting sustainable raw materials in the face of upcoming regulations.

As the full impact of the neo-crowning epidemic began to emerge, the circumstances were fundamentally set aside. The industry is suddenly facing a shortage of medical protective products, masks and a surge in demand for nonwovens in the sanitary, medical and wipe markets.

As the production capacity of polypropylene spunbonded nonwovens is fully utilized in the world, the situation of oversupply in the market is gradually changing. Many "decommissioned" production lines have been put back into production to meet demand. With the full utilization of machines and the balance of raw material costs in the middle of the year, corporate profits have been further increased.
Not all nonwovens markets benefited from the initial impact of the new crown outbreak. The automotive and household goods markets experienced a severe decline in demand in the middle of the year, but began to recover in the third quarter of 2020.

In the face of an unprecedented surge in demand, manufacturers and suppliers of polypropylene spunbonded nonwovens and other nonwoven technologies responded quickly and racked their brains to meet demand in a variety of ingenious ways.

While the demand for masks and the capacity of meltblown fabrics dominated all the headlines, the capacity of new polypropylene spunbonded nonwovens continued to grow at an impressive rate.
We estimate about 210,000 tons of new capacity in 2020, of which about 155,000 tons are Reicofil 5 technologies. The Reicofil 5 production line ordered before the New Crown epidemic quickly achieved full capacity utilization.

In 2021, we expect to add 166,000 tons of capacity, of which 136,000 tons will use Reicofil 5 technology. The Reicofil 5 production line installed in 2022 is expected to add 113,000 tons of new capacity, 55,000 tons in 2023 and 30,000 tons in 2024.
We expect a total of about 575,000 tons of spunbond capacity to be put into operation between 2040 and 2022. This represents an increase in capacity of more than 5% compared to 2019. It is expected that during this period, nonwovens from other technologies will also have more new production capacity to enter the market.

In the field of polypropylene spunbonded nonwovens, people have been developing new, more productive and more reliable processes, and have made great progress in various product innovations that are more attractive to end consumers.
Although the significant increase in production capacity has an impact on market capacity utilization, manufacturers around the world continue to install state-of-the-art production lines to gain product and productivity advantages.

We expect demand to remain high in 2021, resulting in high capacity utilization rates for most of the year. Most of the new capacity planned for production in 2021 will occur in the second half of the year. Arguably, the industry will begin to return to being driven by normal demand factors in 2022.
In this context, we expect that the low birth rate in almost all regions of the world will affect the demand for baby diapers. During this period, the annual demand growth rate for adult incontinence products will be between 5-6%.

Economic conditions in most regions of the world are expected to be moderate, barring the negative impact of energy, inflation, debt, civil strife and war factors. Meanwhile, one-off market penetration in South Asia (India) will continue to increase.

Oversupply is expected in parts of the world by 2024. In this case, the profitability of producers will decline from the current level. Raw material costs will remain volatile and disproportionate between regions.

Overall, we expect raw material costs to be favorable to the market upside. Demand driven by the new crown outbreak will begin to weaken in 2022. Until and during 2022, previously decommissioned capacity is expected to be shut down again as new capacity enters the market and demand slows.

After 2024, the pace of investment in new capacity is expected to slow until new capacity is absorbed. This expectation may be affected by the decommissioning of the old production line. We also expect a possible upgrade of existing production lines to enhance capacity.

As in other regions, North America's capacity is currently fully utilized. We expect demand growth for baby diapers to slow due to inventories caused by the new crown outbreak and to be consistent with the low birth rate. The demand for adult incontinence products continues to grow at an annual rate of 5-6%. As new generation capacity enters the market and demand declines, it is expected that the decommissioned capacity put into use during the previous outbreak will be rationalized in 2021.

If the macro economy is stable, the demand for polypropylene spunbonded nonwovens in the construction, medical and industrial markets will continue to remain attractive. New capacity is expected to exceed 120000 tonnes in 2021-2024, up 5% YoY. There may be overcapacity in 2025. However, some producers with aging production lines may need to invest in new technologies towards the end of the period, putting pressure on early capacity elimination.

In South America, epidemic-related capacity utilization is high. The last new capacity in the region was completed by Brazil's Fitesa in 2016. Fitesa will start production of a Reicofil 5 plant with a capacity of about 30000 tons in the second half of 2021.

Economic trends in the region continue to improve, and demand for disposable hygiene products and other nonwovens market is on the rise. Adult incontinence products have strong potential for future growth. We expect to add additional capacity during this period to meet growing demand and enable the upgrading of existing technologies.

In the European region, 75,000 tons of new capacity will enter the market in 2020, of which 50,000 tons will be in Turkey (Gulsan). Union and Innovatec will jointly start production of about 31,000 tons of capacity in 2021. Gulsan will add 25,000 tons in the second half of 2022. We expect capacity utilization to weaken in 2022 as capacity outpaces demand growth in the region and export markets.

In the Middle East and North Africa, the surge in demand related to the new crown epidemic has left the region in dire need of higher capacity utilization. We expect capacity utilization to begin to decline in 2022, but this decline will not be significant.
Iran is not included in the analysis of the region. The advanced technology Baftineh to be installed in Iran in the second half of 2020 modernizes the company's technology platform and adds new functionality to its product portfolio.
In South Africa, new installed capacity in PFNonwovens and Spunchem will be fully realized by 2020. We do not expect any additional new capacity in the near term.

In South Asia, demand continues to grow as disposable nonwovens market penetration increases. Toray commissioned a new Reicofil 4s production line with an annual capacity of 20,000 tons at its new plant in India in the fourth quarter of 2020.

Global Nonwovens expects to start production of a Reicofil 5 production line with a capacity of about 30,000 tons in 2022. This will allow the company to have three production lines in India with a total capacity of about 70000 tons per year.

Avgol will move the upgraded Reicofil 3.1 production line from Israel to a second new plant in India in 2022. We expect India to install more capacity by 2025 as demand growth accelerates. Capacity utilization in the region remains high and imports from Middle East, Asia-Pacific and Chinese producers are also expected.

In the Asia-Pacific region, Fitesa/CNC commissioned a Reicofil 5 facility in Thailand at the end of 2020. The machine has an annual capacity of about 30,000 tons.
Asahi (Thailand) and Fibertex (Malaysia) will start production in 2021 with a single production line with an annual capacity of 30,000 tons. Asahi ended its Nobeoko plant in Japan in 2020. The plant contains three production lines with a total annual capacity of 26,000 tons. A Reicofil 3.1 line at the location was sold to Beautiful Nonwovens (China).

According to reports, Beautiful will reopen the line at its Uniquetex plant in the United States. Demand in the region is growing, but at a slower pace than in previous periods. We expect that investment in new capacity in the region may not be released until after 2023.
In China, at least 65,000 tons of new PP SB/SMS capacity and hundreds of independent meltblown lines will be put into production in 2020. Many meltblowing lines are no longer in use, but about 100 or more remain in operation.

In 2021, Jofo Wuxi and Allmed will install Reicofil 5 technology. Yizhou will also increase capacity. We expect at least 50,000 tonnes of new capacity to come on stream in 2021. Berry will install a new production line in 2022 with an expected annual capacity of 20,000 tons.
Although more capacity will be installed in China from 2021 to 2025, we expect the annual demand growth of polypropylene spunbond nonwovens in China to slow compared with the previous period, which may affect future capacity growth.

As things stand, we expect annual global demand growth (in tons) of about 5% from 2020 to 2025. But this outlook is sensitive to macroeconomic factors, the impact of disease and global volatility. Demand growth was highest in South Asia (India) and Africa, followed by Asia-Pacific and China. Demand growth will be more moderate in North and South America, Greater Europe and the Middle East.

All in all, driven by technological innovation, we expect capacity to grow more than demand during this period. This will put more pressure on the elimination of early production lines to achieve higher capacity utilization.

By 2025, the growth in demand for polypropylene spunbonded nonwovens in South Asia, Asia Pacific and China is expected to be the highest in the world, and new capacity will be installed to meet this demand. However, competitive pressures are likely to cause these regions to add more capacity than needed.

The world's leading nonwovens manufacturer continues to actively pursue the advancement of polypropylene spunbonded non-woven fabrics in terms of bulkiness and soft surface characteristics to meet the higher requirements of users for high-quality hygiene products. While Asian consumers have the highest demand for these products, Western Europe and the United States are also increasing.
To date, we have witnessed many innovations in this area, and it is impressive that manufacturers are actively exploring advances in production equipment and processes, as well as various options and combinations of raw materials to meet this challenge.

Source: Jung-International Nonwovens Industry