On December 3, the production and sales of polyester mainstream factories climbed to around 120-130 percent, with some higher production and sales reaching 200 and 250 percent.
On December 4, polyester production and sales fell significantly, only in the vicinity of 4-6%.
Polyester filament production and marketing once again staged a "day trip" market.
Polyester filament yarn, as a raw material in the textile market, has experienced a "heavy blow" this year. It is difficult to reverse the profit loss, and it is more common for the price to be halved......
Although it is only the beginning of December, judging from the overall situation of the textile market this year, it seems that the end can be foreseen.
At the beginning of December, polyester filament yarn in previous years was of great scenery.
From the price point of view, in 2017 and 2018, the prices of polyester filament products are at a high level, and the rise and fall is not large, but by 2019, the price center of gravity of polyester filament products has declined significantly, with a decline of more than 13%.
In terms of profits, in 2017, the profits of polyester filament products were high, but this year, the profits of various products have shrunk to varying degrees, especially FDY products, which have been in a state of loss since October, and the range of losses has been expanding.
At present, polyester filament is regarded as "falling into the trough", and the decline is nothing more than the polyester filament itself production capacity, cost end PTA and downstream weaving demand has changed.
Capacity expansion of polyester filament
In recent years, China's polyester filament production to maintain high-speed growth, in 2019 China's polyester filament production capacity of about 3.84 million tons, the growth rate of about 9.75 percent, supply and demand increased, polyester filament market is facing greater pressure.
This year, starting from September, the output of polyester filament yarn grew faster. The output growth rate in September was about 15.7, the output growth rate in October was about 17.8, and the output growth rate in November was about 13.6. In the first half of the year, the load of polyester filament was basically around 75%, and after entering September, polyester filament manufacturers began to increase the load. Up to now, the load of polyester filament is around 82.7. Increased production capacity, increased load, polyester filament pressure.
Cost End PTA Collapse
PTA performed well in the first half of the year, but in the second half of the year, PTA continued to decline, and the futures surface even broke 4700 points. With the continuous fluctuation of the futures surface, the internal price also continued to decline. Up to now, the internal price of PTA is only around 4750 yuan/ton. As the "king" of the industrial chain, PTA once "ate most of the cake in one bite". The profit reached the annual peak of 1787 yuan/ton in July this year, but at present, PTA profit is a loss.
The decline of PTA is also due to the continuous expansion of its production capacity. At the end of October, the commissioning of the 2.2 million-ton PTA plant in Xinfengming once again triggered the market's concern about the oversupply of PTA. Not only that, 2020~2021 China will usher in the peak of PTA production, is expected to put into production a total of 14.4 million tons/year, accounting for about 29% of the end of 2019 production capacity. The expanding supply side makes it difficult for PTA prices to climb and the cost end of polyester filament is collapsing.
Weaving market demand is insufficient
The evil consequences caused by overcapacity have caused weaving manufacturers to "suffer" this year. Inventory is high, profits are shrinking, demand is weak, production reduction, suspension of production, and frequent closures. Until October 9., although the market has picked up, it still has little effect., The purchase of polyester filament is basically just a replenishment. Up to now, at the end of the year, the orders of weaving enterprises have basically come to an end, looms have begun to make inventory, and the receivables have not been fully recovered at present. Due to the pressure of funds, the demand for polyester filament is not strong.
However, according to the practice before the Spring Festival holiday every year, weaving enterprises must have a wave of hoarding operations for polyester filament. However, in view of this year's market situation and the uncertainty of next year's fashion trend, it is expected that the hoarding volume will not be larger than in previous years.
PTA can not give polyester filament cost-end support, weaving enterprises can not give polyester filament demand-end support, polyester filament market this year can not be strong for a reason... In recent stages, as this year's biggest negative factor of Sino-US tensions and further warming, next year's market is difficult to say good, all parties weak, polyester filament reversal opportunities may not be big.
