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Affected by factors such as the unintention of major oil-producing countries to increase production and the continued pressure of US sanctions on Iran, international oil prices rose 2% in intraday trading on the 24th. Market participants are worried that oil prices will gradually "break 100.

In intraday trading on the 24th, the price of London Brent crude oil futures rose more than 2%, close to US $81 per barrel, the highest in four years, indicating that international oil prices were boosted by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) signal that it would not increase production. On the same day, the price of Brent futures rose by US $1.82 to US $80.62 per barrel, an increase of 2.3. At the same time, the price of light crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange also rose sharply by US $1.35 to US $72.13 per barrel. Market participants attributed the surge in oil prices mainly to US sanctions against Iran, which will further suppress global oil supply.

At the same time, the news of the surge in oil prices stimulated the recovery of bulk polyester raw materials, accordingPTAAfter a sharp decline for more than a week, affected by the sharp rise in oil prices, the early price of PTA futures rose sharply on the 25th, with the 1901 of the main contract rising by more than 1% at one point. In addition, the production and sales of polyester factories also improved sharply on that day, with the production and sales of some factories rising to 300 at one point, giving a big boost to the polyester market, which has been depressed for many weeks.

The big rise triggered the "broken hundred" conjecture.

In its latest market outlook report, JPMorgan Chase said that US sanctions against Iran are likely to trigger oil prices to rise to $90 in the coming months.

CommoditiesTraders Tok and Mercurie Energy Trading Group said at the Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference (APPEC) held in Singapore on the 23rd that oil prices may rise to $100 a barrel in 2019 due to the tightening of the market by US sanctions against Iran.

Gagi, president of Mercuria Energy Trading Group, said that the United States will impose sanctions on Iran near the end of the fourth quarter, which will reduce market supply by about 2 million barrels per day, which will make it possible for crude oil prices to rise to $100 per barrel.

As the market tightens, crude oil prices could rise to $90 a barrel before Christmas and $100 a barrel before the new year, according to Lukock, co-head of trading at Tock.

Although the crude oil price breaking through $100 is certainly not a short-term thing, as soon as the news comes out, it affects not only the cost side of the entire polyester industry chain, but also a great boost to the mentality and expectations of the market.

The calm after the polyester industry chain plummeted, can the rise in oil prices set off waves?

The recent performance of the entire polyester industry chain is almost dismal. up to PX, PTA, down to polyester chips, bottle slices, andPolyesterfilament,polyester staple fiberAll have declined to varying degrees.

However, this wave of market seems to be in a slump, but in fact there are still rules to follow. Except for the large decline in ethylene glycol, the decline of other products is gradually shrinking, especially in this week, the stalemate has become the main tone of the entire polyester industry chain.

The price dilemma and the market's sideways oscillation not only show that the market is in a stalemate between the long and short sides, but also reflects the industry's confusion about the market outlook from the side.

At present, the reason given by many parties in the market is that crude oil prices have been in an upward channel for a long time, which has greatly boosted the commodity market. And crude oil as the source of the entire polyester industry chain, the impact on the market sentiment can not be underestimated.

Now, although the market for a long time stalemate, polyester is very humbled, but still can only look at the crude oil "face". If crude oil rises sharply, the downstream generally bearish situation on the future market will ease, and the willingness to buy goods will be greatly improved. Market supply will be able to increase volume, into the traditional peak season, the improvement of the market will also be significantly boosted. The rapid manifestation of all this conduction is that crude oil is still the main determinant of the polyester industry chain.

In addition, although downstream resistance is still in progress and production reduction is being implemented, considering that there are still many sets of PTA units overhauled in late September and October, the recent shutdown of Zhuhai BP and Yangzi Petrochemical has led to a drop in PTA operation. This week, the 1.5 million-ton unit in Jiaxing, Tongkun, will be overhauled as scheduled. PTA operation will further drop, and the decrease in supply increment can offset the drag caused by some polyester production reduction. In general, the recent decline in PTA prices is due to the interweaving of long and short factors, the trend returns to the fundamental demand, and the basic balance of supply and demand in the later period is still the trend.

The short side of the chip is mainly polyester production range to expand, polyester start down, polyester inventory quickly rebounded, so that the demand side performance is empty; in addition, September is about to pass, polyester and terminal weaving market on the traditional peak season "golden nine silver ten" expectations are not good, replenishment demand is still weak. At present, the weaving start-up rate in Shengze area is 70%, and the order production is still slow.

Therefore, it is still an old saying: whether the market is good or not depends on whether the crude oil is strong or not, otherwise everything will be floating clouds. On the whole, the deep-seated changes in the current supply and demand pattern have established a strong pattern of crude oil, while the political turmoil in the global economy has further increased market concerns. But at the same time, industry insiders also said that the current crude oil prices continue to rise, and the mentality of both supply and demand is very subtle. To put it better, it is cautious. To put it bluntly, it is "afraid of falling". Last year, crude oil was generally optimistic, but the late "halving" market is still fresh in my mind, and there is no way not to compare and correlate. We will not delve into whether crude oil will really rise to $100 for the time being, but if crude oil prices can rebound sharply, the entire polyester market will improve, and this optimism will continue to spread in the short term.