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With the end of the first quarter of 2022, global new crown cases began to decline, while isolated peaks continued to occur. At the same time, the world is clearly affected by the impact of the neo-crowning epidemic on the world economy due to supply chain disruptions and high inflation. In addition, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has had both short-and long-term effects on global trade and the economy. In this context, the spunbond and spunmelt polypropylene nonwovens market continues to expand as adjustments and fluctuations occur in almost all regions of the world.

The impact of the new crown outbreak on the global spunbond polypropylene nonwovens market in 2020 is huge, and subsequently, the market adjustment in the second half of 2021 has reduced demand. At the beginning of 2022, the supply chain was disrupted, and the surge in demand related to the new crown began to normal, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine attracted global attention. This fuels inflation, stoking a potential threat to the global economic system. Russia's actions will affect energy, raw materials and the global economy for some time.

In today's global spunbond/spunmelt polypropylene nonwovens market, there are both opportunities and challenges. In addition to the short-term economic disruption caused by Russia's invasion of Ukraine, falling birth rates, rising inflation, rising interest rates and rising geopolitical tensions in most parts of the world are likely to put further downward pressure on global demand.

At the same time, the industry has made significant progress in the use of sustainable raw materials in the production of nonwovens, but the uncertainty of the global economy may bring headwinds. Despite the uncertainty, the industry remains exceptionally resilient and able to successfully cope with the challenges and rising demand faced during the outbreak and duration of the new crown crisis.
 
Global capacity and demand

In 2022, more capacity is being put on the market due to the installation of extremely advanced new production lines and the response to the surge in demand caused by the new crown. We estimate that about 159,000 tonnes of new capacity will come on stream in 2021, mostly in Reicofil 5 technologies. This capacity was ordered before the outbreak and full capacity utilization was soon achieved. We estimate that about 192000 tons of new capacity will come on stream in 2022, bringing capacity to about 5,308.8 kilotons. Most of the capacity was ordered at the end of 2020, and some of the capacity, which should have entered service in 2021, is facing production delays as supply chain disruptions and travel restrictions prevent technicians from installing, and the sheer volume of new equipment ordered waiting to be installed.

In 2023, we expect the industry to start another 128000 tonnes of new capacity. Overall, we judge that approximately 502,000 tons of spunbond capacity will be put into production between 2021 and 2025. This means capacity will increase by more than 10% compared to 2020.

The spunbonded polypropylene nonwovens industry has made great strides in developing new, high-yield, and reliable manufacturing technologies, and in developing innovative products that are more attractive to end users. Despite the impact of these new capacity increases on market capacity utilization, producers across the globe continue to install state-of-the-art technologies to gain product and productivity advantages.

At the end of the third quarter of 2021, demand began to decline and fell sharply in the fourth quarter of 2021. Compared with 2021, we expect demand to continue to decline moderately through 2022, with demand and YoY growth returning to normal and gradually returning in 2023. In this context, we expect that the low birth rate in almost all regions of the world will put pressure on the demand for baby diapers. During this period, the annual growth rate of adult incontinence demand will be between 5-6%.

We expect global demand (in tons) to grow at about 5% a year from 2021 to 2026. The projected outlook is sensitive to macroeconomic factors, disease shocks and global volatility. Demand growth was highest in South Asia (India) and Africa, followed by Asia-Pacific and China. Demand growth will be more moderate in North and South America, Greater Europe and the Middle East.

Oversupply is expected in parts of the world by 2024, as the full impact of new capacity will be fully felt in the market. A factor that may offset this increase in capacity is the closure of earlier technologies that were put back into use during the new crown epidemic. Raw material costs will remain volatile and disproportionate across regions. Overall, we expect raw material costs to rise.

Against this backdrop, due to uncertainty and rising investment costs, we believe that investment in plant and equipment may slow once the next round of investment occurs in 2024. This expectation may be affected by the retirement of the early production line. We also expect that producers may upgrade existing capacity to enhance the capacity of existing equipment.

Capacity and Demand in Asia Pacific and China

In the Asia-Pacific region, Fitesa/CNC commissioned an R5 raw device in Thailand at the end of 2020, with an annual capacity of about 30,000 tons. Asahi (Thailand) commissioned a production line with a capacity of 15,000 tons in the third quarter of 2021. Fibertex (Malaysia) commissioned an R5 production line with a capacity of 15,000 tons in the first quarter of 2022. Asahi closed the typhoon-damaged Japanese plant in 2020. The plant contains three production lines with a total annual capacity of 26,000 tons. A Reicofil 3.1 line at the location was sold to Beautiful Nonwovens (China). According to reports, Beautiful will re-commission the production line at its Uniquetex plant in the United States. The new line will also be commissioned by Myanmar's Cobes Industries and Hanil (South Korea) in the third quarter of 2022. Demand in the region is growing, but more slowly than in previous periods. We do not expect the region to release further capacity investment until after 2023. We expect the capacity to reach 523.0 kilotons by the end of 2023.

In China, we estimate that 129,000 tonnes of new PP SB/SMS capacity will come on stream in 2022. This includes new capacity units for Jofo Wuxi, Berry and Allmed. China appears to be preparing to add more new capacity to supply the global market with medical nonwoven substrates for surgical gowns and hole towels. Although we expect China to increase production capacity from 2021 to 2026, the annual demand growth for spunbonded polypropylene nonwovens made in China is expected to slow down compared to the previous period, which may affect future capacity growth. We estimate a total of 1,943.7 kilotons of production capacity at the end of 2023.
 
This article is from Nonwovens Industry Journal
作者：David J. Price, Price Hanna Consultants

Source: Jung-International Nonwoven Industry Business