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How fierce the rise was and how miserable the fall was! Crude oil fell below 100, predicted to go to 50?

Pre-textile raw materials by the cost of crude oil prices strong pull up, the price center of gravity continued to move up, PTA2205 the main contract on March 9 to 6616, a new high in nearly three years. But after the sharp rise, the collapse of the market may follow! Recently, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has eased, market sentiment has reversed, international oil prices panic fell, while the domestic epidemic counterattack, textile raw materials transportation is blocked, demand is also difficult to improve, then after the loss of strong oil price support and weak demand recovery, the current textile market will go?

23 provinces fight back

Transport of textile raw materials is blocked, downstream demand may drop sharply

Spread! The domestic epidemic situation is suddenly severe! At present, North China, East China, South China have a more obvious epidemic wind control, some areas to pick up goods, transportation blocked! Many warehouses across the country have strict requirements for picking up goods during the outbreak, and nucleic acid reports within 24 or 48 hours are required in areas with asterisks for vehicles and travel codes in foreign provinces, or adversely affect downstream demand! Depress the market trading mentality.

From the downstream point of view, 167 highway exits in Jiangsu were temporarily closed, and the impact of limited logistics and transportation on downstream factories was mainly in the sales of finished products. Similarly, due to certain restrictions on vehicle transportation, finished products could not be shipped out. Even if there are orders to purchase, but the logistics shutdown, some traffic control, transportation difficulty increased, procurement is more cautious, most wait-and-see, the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high.

It is expected that in the short term, the inventory of finished products of downstream enterprises may accumulate to a certain extent, if accumulated to a certain extent, it is expected to affect the operating rate of downstream enterprises to a certain extent.

Dongguan factory shut down for 7 days

Dongguan factory shut down for 7 days, but there is no way! The epidemic has disrupted the pace of life again and again!

Crude oil is doomed.

Market sentiment plummets

Affected by the surge in new crown cases in many places in China and the gradual tightening of control in many places, the market's demand for the peak season is expected to cool down. At the same time, the recent situation in Russia and Ukraine disturbance weakened, superimposed on this week's Federal Reserve interest rate resolution, the market high sentiment suddenly dropped!

In addition, the international situation is volatile, and the high heat, high attention to the crude oil is also doomed! As of the morning of the 15th, wti crude oil futures fell more than 6.00 per day to $101.38 per barrel!

According to CCTV news, both Ukraine and Russia have actively expressed their respective positions, and the two sides are still communicating. The situation in Russia and Ukraine shows optimistic signals, crude oil 130 dollars or a short-term high!

International crude oil has been falling all the way, and the domestic raw material futures market is also "a miserable green"! The spot market fell again!

Short-term "bull head" difficult to rise

The raw material adjustment cycle will therefore be lengthened.

On the whole, Xiao Bian believes that it will still face adjustment pressure in the short term. From the perspective of raw materials, under the influence of international politics and the improvement of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the adjustment of the crude oil market is estimated to be difficult to lift in the short term. In addition, considering the current weak demand situation, the polyester raw material market is also facing the embarrassing situation of relative oversupply, which is not conducive to the operation of the polyester market. From the perspective of polyester itself, first of all, the imbalance between supply and demand has become its fatal "hard injury", coupled with the fluctuation of traders' mentality, it also has a certain killing effect on the market.

The more important problem is that in the downstream, with the repeated epidemic situation and environmental pressure, a series of "earthquakes" have been produced on the whole industry. You can imagine how difficult the living environment of the textile industry will be under the condition of intensive bad news. In the downstream aspect, the production enthusiasm of enterprises has been seriously hit, and then a vicious circle effect has been produced in the whole industry. Therefore, from the above three levels, the editor believes that the polyester market will still have adjustment pressure in the short term, especially in the case of the postponement of the peak season in the first half of the year caused by various downstream factors, the adjustment cycle will also be lengthened.

400000 tons of sliding tax quota issued.

Limited impact on domestic cotton

The issuance of sliding tax quotas is disadvantageous to Xinjiang cotton, which is seriously lagging behind in sales progress, but the overall negative impact is relatively limited. There is a gap in domestic cotton production and demand. Under the condition of low national storage and inventory, foreign cotton needs to be imported to make up for the gap. Under the condition that the short-term loan repayment pressure is still acceptable, the quotation remains firm. From this perspective, the issuance of sliding tax quotas is inevitable and will continue to be issued in the later period, and the amount of 400000 tons this time is not much for the domestic output of nearly 6 million tons.

Downstream encounters "late spring cold"

The number of orders received is not as expected.

In March, with the accumulation of cotton yarn inventory to more than 1 month, cotton mills for 3 consecutive months of spinning spot profit loss, cotton generally purchased by order, inventory control in about 1 month. According to the survey, as of March 10, the theoretical average profit of 32 cotton general comb ring spinning high-end products was -1382.01 yuan/ton, down 2649.49 yuan/ton from the same period last year, and the loss range of cotton spinning mills expanded. The start-up load of cotton mills in Shandong was 59%, down 18 percentage points from the same period last year. Cotton yarn orders were arranged for 4.8 days, down 13.2 days from the same period last year. Cotton yarn inventory lasted 42 days, up 32 days from the same period last year. Cotton inventory was available for 37 days, down 28 days from the same period last year. Cotton downstream market suffered "late spring cold", "gold three silver four" orders season is not prosperous, textile enterprises recently maintained just need small batch replenishment mainly, demand side good enough, cotton prices above pressure.

At present, the situation of oversupply in the textile market is still prominent, and the high inventory of conventional fabrics is also relatively serious. Compared with the inventory of raw materials, the destocking pressure of gray fabrics is greater. In the last two days, although it has entered the traditional peak season, the current sales situation of weaving enterprises is still difficult to open, and there are few products to be sold, especially the sales of conventional fabrics such as polyester taffeta and Chunya textile, which occupy a large market share, are not as expected, resulting in the continuous increase of the inventory of weaving enterprises, and in fact, the existence of raw material warehouse is transferred to weaving enterprises to some extent, and this inventory pressure in the end market is probably more dangerous than inventory in the raw material factory.

Yarn, cloth start index is at the lowest level in the same period in recent years

As of last weekend, China's yarn start load index was 60.4, down 4.5 percentage points from the same period last year. China's gray fabric start load index was 56.2, down 9 percentage points from the same period last year. Yarn inventory in yarn mills was 22.5 days, up 14 days from the same period last year, and gray fabric inventory in gray fabric factories was 29.4 days, up 12 days from the same period last year. Among them, the yarn mill operating load index is the lowest level in the same period in recent years.

At this stage, the pure cotton yarn market atmosphere is not good, the downstream weaving factory orders are insufficient, only to maintain just need to purchase, spinning enterprises to take goods in general, inventory accumulation. In terms of price, the price of pure cotton yarn is mainly stable, and the price of gray cloth is also mainly stable, but the actual price is favorable. Upstream ginning plant price VS downstream demand is weak, cotton fundamentals have not changed significantly, is expected to remain volatile in the near future. We will pay close attention to the outbreak and the impact of macro-facing downstream demand.