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Recently, with the geopolitical situation complicated and confusing, the domestic epidemic has also had different ups and downs. The textile market has also become volatile and unsettling.

Entering the traditional peak season gold three silver four period, the market can usher in a boom?

As for textile raw materials, the situation in Russia and Ukraine has entered the stage of talking while fighting. However, the excitement of international oil prices has not subsided. Affected by this, textile raw materials have also been continuously raised. However, the mentality of "buying up" in the downstream has not been shown. Several price increases in production and sales are respectively: 99.5, 98% and 86%, mainly showing that the market has become more wait-and-see mood and the downstream replenishment enthusiasm is low, spot sales in the textile market are still slow and inventory is high. At present, the stock of gray cloth in Jiangsu and Zhejiang is about 33.2 days. Crude oil rose hot, but downstream demand has remained unchanged.

The epidemic is one after another.

First of all, the recent epidemic in Jiangsu has been properly, effectively and timely controlled. However, "gold three silver four" is about to open, Dongguan and Hangzhou part of the textile trade center due to the outbreak of the closure of the state. Dongguan Dalang wool trading center closed, Hangzhou Sijiqing clothing block closed.

Coupled with the multi-point fermentation of the domestic epidemic, the temporary closure of many textile trade centers, resulting in the domestic textile market demand continued to shrink, the recovery period after the delay. In addition, affected by geopolitical conflicts, the international environment is complex, and the future situation is not clear, which will bring unpredictable effects to the textile and garment industry.

The number of downstream orders received is not as expected.

At present, the situation of oversupply in the market is still prominent, and the high inventory of conventional fabrics is also relatively serious. Compared with the inventory of raw materials, the destocking pressure of gray fabrics is greater. In the last two days, although it has entered the traditional peak season, the current sales situation of weaving enterprises is still difficult to open, and there are fewer products to be sold, especially conventional fabrics such as polyester taffeta and chunya textile, which occupy a large market share, but the sales are not as expected. This has led to the continuous increase in the inventory of weaving enterprises, which has actually caused the existence of raw material warehouses to be passed on to weaving enterprises to some extent, and this inventory pressure in the terminal market is probably more dangerous than inventory in polyester factories.

In the current situation of high supply, weak demand and high inventory, polyester filament yarn in March is more dependent on cost-end support. But at present, polyester filament followed the rise of raw materials, the center of gravity of the transaction moved up, but far less than the increase in raw materials, so cash flow significantly compressed. At present, the situation in Russia and Ukraine is changeable. In the short term, oil prices are easy to rise and difficult to fall. Under the support of the cost end, polyester filament also has upward expectations, but I am afraid the upward road is bumpy.

Southeast Asia orders back to seize the market

Secondly, it is understood that the current foreign trade orders in the market are generally weaker than domestic orders. As we all know, before the Spring Festival, foreign trade orders have improved significantly, and once became a hot market. But after the start of the year, the upward momentum weakened and seemed to return to the calm of last year. The start-up rate of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has finally risen to 71% after various wrong folds, but compared with the same period of last year, the start-up rate has decreased by 9%. Through in-depth enterprise investigation, we found that most manufacturers are currently receiving small orders, while large orders are still lacking. Although there is a lack of large orders, the overall executable orders of the enterprise can be maintained until the end of March. March should enter the traditional textile foreign trade demand season, why orders have not increased?

On the one hand, due to the recovery of production in Southeast Asia (statistics from Vietnam's General Administration of Customs show that in January 2022, Vietnam's leather and shoe enterprises exported US $0.3903 billion for handbags and umbrellas and US $1.937 billion for footwear products) and the increase in domestic labor and operating costs, most orders returned to Southeast Asian countries. On the other hand, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine will inevitably have a certain impact on foreign trade. Since the war, deferred payments have been received from customers, delayed delivery, feedback to reduce order volume. Some enterprises said that customers have not returned information. In an environment where the state has declared an emergency, commercial activity is bound to be limited.

Generally speaking, in the future market, it is found in the market research that the opinions of enterprises are not much different, mainly pessimistic. Whether foreign trade can improve is still an important factor affecting the market. At present, the local weaving production base has a warming trend, mostly domestic small batch summer orders. It is expected that the traditional peak season in the later period will not be as hot as expected, but some orders will still be released and there will be some improvement.