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Due to the power rationing and parking from the third quarter to the fourth quarter of 2021, and the possible mandatory parking of polyester factories around Hangzhou in September 2022, many polyester factories did not arrange maintenance during the Spring Festival this year, resulting in a high operating rate in the industry.
As of last Friday, the domestic polyester comprehensive operating rate of 89.19, up 5.27 from the pre-holiday. With the start of polyester factories, polyester starts rose significantly. Polyester filament yarn, the average start of enterprises in 89.1, Tiansheng, Xinxin, Shenjiu and other devices to restart, the overall start-up rose sharply, polyester staple fiber, the overall start-up of enterprises in 83.89, before and after the Spring Festival parking device basically restarted, and the recent temporary no maintenance device, so the start-up significantly increased. Polyester PET: The average operating rate of fiber-grade PET plants is 88.79 percent, a 250000-ton polyester plant in Hubei resumes production, the average operating rate of bottle-grade PET plants is around 92.04 percent, and the operating rate of mainstream manufacturers remains high.

On the other hand, the weaving market, according to data, as of February 17, the comprehensive start-up rate of chemical fiber weaving in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 49.94, up 18.84 from the previous month. At present, most of the downstream textile weaving enterprises have concentrated on the resumption of work, the resumption of work enterprises have been fully put into the production process, but the number of new orders is relatively scarce, coupled with the delay of the return of migrant workers and other factors, most downstream users only maintain low operation. At present, there are only a small number of spring and summer orders in China, mostly receiving more orders years ago. In foreign trade, profits are relatively limited due to the price of raw materials and sea freight. Therefore, the discussion time between buyers and sellers is longer, the resistance of traders is heating up, the current market is still in a stagnant stage, and the consumption of finished products in the factory is slowing down.
The supply is high but the demand is declining. The mismatch between upstream and downstream starts has led to a surge in pressure on upstream raw materials. Coupled with the return after the festival, polyester production and sales are light, with an average production and sales of less than 50%, and the inventory of polyester products is increasing rapidly.
It is understood that FDY, DTY inventory has been around 30 days, POY inventory in 25-26 days, polyester short inventory in 14 days, the product inventory has reached a new high last year. Downstream polyester inventory also continued to rise, including staple fiber product inventory has been close to historical highs, filament inventory is also continuing to rise, are at the highest level in the same period in history. Weak polyester production and sales have also suppressed the enthusiasm of polyester factories to purchase raw materials, resulting in a slow downward transfer of raw material inventory.
Whether the high start can be maintained mainly depends on whether the inventory can be digested to the normal level.
High start-up, high inventory is the current status quo of the polyester market, the subsequent high start-up can be maintained mainly depends on whether the inventory can be digested to normal levels. At present, polyester benefit level still has room for price reduction promotion, terminal demand is also recovering, it is difficult to effectively evaluate, if the follow-up price reduction promotion effect is good, polyester high start-up is expected to be maintained. "Judging from the current situation, terminal orders are not particularly ideal. They are mainly used to process pre-holiday orders. Compared with the optimistic expectations of everyone before the holiday, they are indeed somewhat unsatisfactory, and further tracking is still needed.
On February 15, an epidemic broke out in Suzhou, and the construction of Shengze Town, Wujiang District, as an important textile town in China, was affected to a certain extent. The reporter found from the flow, Suzhou outbreak confirmed cases involving Shenghong Chemical Fiber employees. In this regard, industry insiders believe that the pressure of epidemic prevention and control of local enterprises will rise, including employee home observation, nucleic acid testing and other active epidemic prevention measures will have a certain impact on the start of enterprises, but is expected to have a short-term impact.
"From the information we know so far, the Suzhou area has been affected by the epidemic, and there is indeed some inconvenience in terms of logistics, which has affected the progress of downstream recovery to some extent. At least in terms of the lifting of the polyester plant, it has not been greatly affected." Zhu Lihang said that because the terminal is still in the process of recovery, the specific degree of impact is not easy to judge for the time being. However, the current epidemic in Suzhou is still under control and will not interfere too much with the operation of enterprises.
The next half month will be crucial. Whether the market can start or not

But the market follow-up is obviously weak. The CUHK market officially opened on the 10th, but the rework of cloth shops and weaving factories was slow, and the epidemic in Guangxi had an impact on the return of some workers in Zhangcha weaving factories. On the whole, the weaving factory basically resumed production after the 15th of the first month. However, since the opening of the CUHK market, the daily flow of people is not high, and the market performance is quite flat. Some cloth factories have not yet called all workers, and the operating rate is not high. A cloth bank said that the market has begun to be hot in the same period last year, and there is no sign of starting until the 15th of this year. I am afraid that the "gold, silver and four" will be cool. At present, the overall quotation in the market is chaotic. After the year, the quotation of raw materials has increased by more than 500 yuan/ton, and the gray cloth end has increased by 0.2-0.4 yuan/meter. However, it is difficult for the end customers to accept it, and the actual transaction has made more profits. At present, the goods are still mainly pre-received orders before the festival. It is expected that the proofing list for spring and summer will be issued to a certain extent, but everyone's mentality has gradually become cautious and pessimistic. Market confidence in the future gradually weakened, the price of raw materials fell 100-300 yuan/ton recently. Generally speaking, the next half month is very critical, and whether the market can start depends on this.