According to the business agency textile index, the textile index was 834 points as of December 31, 2019, down 132 points, or 13.66 percent, compared with 966 points on January 1, 2019, the lowest in three years. This is down 27.85 from the cycle's highest point of 1156 points (2018-09-03) and up 16.64 from the lowest point of 715 points on February 17, 2016. (Note: Cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to date)
2019 textile market, January-February by the rise in crude oil prices, the cost side of the chemical fiber market formed a strong support, while approaching the Spring Festival actively stocking, in the cost-driven and demand-driven, the overall price upward. March-May chemical fiber raw material PX new capacity supply pressure increased sharply, as well as the decline in export competitiveness, downstream orders significantly weakened, under the dual pressure of cost and demand, the market began to weaken. In June, the chemical fiber device due to the failure of the unexpected maintenance increased, the spot supply is tight, ushered in a wave of rapid rise. Into July by the "PTA report letter event", "PTA over-the-counter options burst event" impact, while the demand side of the fatigue gradually appeared, the market fell back significantly. "Golden Nine Silver Ten" traditional peak season impact, after a small rebound, subject to PTA new input capacity again pressurized, demand side sluggish, raw material market there is a tired library expectations, the market continues to bottom.
On the price side, according to the business agency price monitoring, the 2019 commodity price rise and fall list in the textile sector rose a total of 1 commodity, up for dry cocoons (6.47 percent). A total of 16 commodities fell month-on-month, with a decline of more than 5 per cent, accounting for 94.1 per cent of the number of commodities monitored in the sector, while the top 3 products were viscose staple fiber (-29.82 per cent), nylon POY(-22.39 per cent) and polyester staple fiber (-21.43 per cent). The average annual increase or decrease was -14.76 per cent.
Viscose staple fiber (-29.82%): Viscose staple fiber in 2019 fell from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, with several small rises in the middle, but they were all unable to lose days, with an unstoppable trend all the way down. The highest price for the whole year is 14000 yuan/ton on January 1, and the lowest price for the whole year is 9825 yuan/ton. This year, the output of viscose has declined, and the import and export volume has increased. About 180000 tons of production capacity withdrew from the market, 160000 tons of production capacity stopped production for a long time, Sedley's acquisition of Jiangsu Xiangsheng and Silia's reorganization of Aoyang Technology, coupled with the long-term impact of Sino-US trade, led to a weak end to viscose this year.
Nylon POY(-22.39%): Textile raw material prices generally fell in 2019, with nylon POY at the top of the list with an annual decline of 22.39%. From mid-April to the end of June, nylon prices showed a precipitous decline, with a phase decline of up to 17.08 per cent. In 2019, domestic nylon fiber production (January-October) increased by 14.4 year-on-year, with both imports and exports declining. The imbalance between supply and demand: domestic production capacity increased, the trade pattern is not ideal resulting in downstream digestion capacity contraction. Cost reduction: crude oil prices weakened, nylon industry chain production costs as a whole down a level.
Polyester staple fiber (-21.43%): In 2019, the lowest price of polyester staple fiber for the whole year was 6860 yuan/ton at the end of November, the highest price for the whole year was 9153 yuan/ton in mid-March, and the average price was 8110 yuan/ton. The price trend of upstream crude oil is closely linked to geopolitics and the relationship between supply and demand. Sino-US trade has reached an agreement. OPEC's decision to deepen production reduction has brought benefits to oil prices. The restart and maintenance of PTA and polyester devices are the key influencing factors. Demand is weak and orders are flat. However, recently, the maintenance of several PTA devices has eased the inventory pressure. High downstream inventory, low orders and slow payment have brought great pressure on domestic yarn. Based on the trend of 19 years, it is expected that polyester staple fiber will continue this year's trend next year, and it will be more difficult to rise.
Looking at 2019, especially in the second half of the chemical fiber industry production capacity is concentrated, but the overall demand has not changed significantly, including the PTA industry chain is experiencing overcapacity, has been in a state of tired inventory, the market will be deeply adjusted. The pattern of supply exceeding demand in the cotton textile industry is difficult to change, coupled with the implementation of environmental protection policies and the instability of the macro environment, it is expected that challenges and opportunities will coexist in the textile industry in 2020.
