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Tariff increase into the "countdown", China-US economic and trade consultations intensive.

At the invitation of the US side, Liu he, special envoy of President Xi Jinping, member of the political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, vice premier of the State Council, and Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, will visit Washington from February 21 to 22 to hold the seventh round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin, just five days after the last dialogue between the two sides.

As the time limit for increasing tariffs on some Chinese products to 25% at zero o'clock on March 2 announced by the United States is getting closer and closer, every process and final result of the Sino-US economic and trade consultation affects the hearts of textile industry.

china-us economic and trade consultations reach principled consensus on major issues

The U.S. government's 10 percent tariff on 200 billion yuan of Chinese products was originally scheduled to be raised to 25 percent on January 1, 2019. On December 14, 2018, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced that it would postpone this time to 12: 01 midnight on March 2, 2019.

There are a total of 5745 taxable products, of which 917 are involved in the textile industry, involving all types of textile yarns, fabrics, industrial finished products and some home textiles, etc., involving an annual export value of more than 4 billion US dollars.

In fact, since the meeting between the heads of state of China and the United States on December 1 last year, especially since late December last year, the frequency of contacts between the two sides has become higher and higher. On February 15, the sixth round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations ended in Diaoyutai, Beijing. Liu He, the Chinese leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic Dialogue, U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer, and Secretary of the Treasury Mnuchin led their respective teams to complete a new round of consultations on the basis of previous Washington consultations and reached consensus in principle on major issues. Relevant people believe that this should be interpreted as a positive signal release.

In the view of Zhu Min, former vice president of the IMF and dean of the National Institute of Finance at Tsinghua University, talking is a good thing.

He believes that there are many details in the trade negotiations, and we will form some results and reach some agreements. This should be the efforts of both sides. But there will also be differences, "I don't think it matters either. Trade is always a negotiation, and talking is a good thing. The U.S. side is also increasingly feeling the need to resolve this issue through negotiations, so the process of talking between the two sides is getting closer and closer, and that's a good thing."

There is no doubt that this round of consultations is the most important one in the game between China and the United States in the past year. Both sides attach great importance to it, the pressure is not small, and both hope to make a breakthrough. On the evening of the 14th, both sides of the negotiation worked all night. For their respective national interests, the working teams of both sides showed great diligence, concentration and professionalism.

Giving always pays off. After the consultations between the two sides, Chinese President Xi Jinping met with US Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin at the Great Hall of the People. This is the first time that a Chinese head of state has met with US trade negotiators since the Sino-US trade friction in March last year. This undoubtedly sends a very positive signal: on the basis of consultations in Washington, China and the United States have taken another step towards the final settlement of the trade dispute.

Liang Ming, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, said that this time our Sino-US economic and trade consultation team is also to further implement the consensus of the leaders of the two countries and further advance in the direction of this consensus.

According to Ji Ruida, a senior adviser to the Albright Stone Bridge Group, this is a good signal. Earlier, President Trump received the Chinese Deputy Prime Minister in the United States. Judging from the current performance of the governments of both sides, they are trying to reach an agreement.

Finding the greatest common divisor

Seeking common ground while reserving differences can be said to be a basic consensus between China and the United States in resolving bilateral issues.

When meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin on February 15, President Xi Jinping pointed out: "I have said many times that neither China nor the United States can do without each other. Cooperation will benefit both, and fighting will hurt both. Cooperation is the best choice. With regard to the economic and trade differences and frictions between the two sides, we are willing to adopt a cooperative approach to resolve them and promote the conclusion of an agreement acceptable to both sides. Of course, cooperation is principled."

Xia Zunen, the new president of the American Chamber of Commerce in China, uses American football and soccer as a metaphor for the economic differences between China and the United States. In his opinion, if you are not familiar with each other's rules, someone will get hurt. A good solution is to find and develop rules that suit both sides.

Xia Zunen said that both kinds of football are very good, but the style of play is different. China and the United States have different understandings of the rules, which creates a lot of problems. We must think of ways, or make the rules clearer in some aspects, or make some other adjustments. If the two sides can resolve the dispute and there are no more factors affecting the economic and trade relations between the two sides, then the world economy will benefit from it. If such an agreement can be reached, the stock market and the companies that formulate strategies will be easier.

In the view of Liang Ming, director of the Institute of Foreign Trade of the Research Institute of the Ministry of Commerce, after many rounds of consultations, although there are more consensus and differences than before, contradictions still exist. It is not realistic to resolve the trade dispute between the world's top two economies through several negotiations.

Liang Ming said, for example, on some structural issues, China and the United States do have some differences. This may also be some issues that China and the United States need to negotiate to resolve in the next step. In the next step, we still have to find the greatest common divisor between China and the United States, find common ground of interests, and further promote the healthy development of Sino-US economic and trade relations through these consultations.

The key is to do your own thing.

Of course, things are moving in a good direction, but the Sino-US trade friction that has lasted for nearly a year has increased the uncertainty of the world. In an article written a few days ago, Zhu Min mentioned: "In 20 years in Davos, I have never seen Davos so anxious and uneasy. The US-China trade friction dominated all the topics of the meeting."

Anxiety and uneasiness have made entrepreneurs all over the world tighten their wallets. In 2018, global foreign direct investment (FDI) has fallen by 18% from $1.47 trillion in 2017 to $1.2 trillion. The same uncertainty has also brought great challenges to China's economy in transition. But in the view of Lee Min-soo, director of the Economic Department of the Asian Development Bank's representative office in China, China has nothing to lose.

Li Minzhu said that trade friction has both negative and positive effects on China, but which kind of impact is more profound, I think it should be seen in the long run. Changes in tariffs are usually short-term and, in the long run, have limited impact. In the long run, it can promote China's further opening up and supply-side structural reforms, and gradually solve some of China's problems. This is an opportunity for China. There is a Chinese proverb called "opportunities and challenges coexist". You accept the challenge., But you can also turn it into an opportunity. This experience has taught China a lesson. In fact, China has nothing to lose.

There are always traces of history to follow in reality. In an exclusive interview with the media at the end of last year, Kenichi Ohmae, a famous Japanese business scientist and management master, said that since the 1970 s, Japan has been the country with the United States in trade friction disputes for the longest time and the most times. From the earliest fiber clothing, wooden shoes, to steel tires, TV cars and even telecom semiconductors, almost every kind of trade war seems to end with Japan's concession and compromise, but in fact it brings countless benefits to Japan, creating better and better products made in Japan, processing trade is becoming more and more globalized, and Japan's market economy is becoming more and more perfect.

In fact, with regard to some structural issues that have differences between China and the United States, such as intellectual property protection and non-tariff barriers, looking at the decisions of the third Plenary session of the 18th CPC Central Committee on a number of major issues of comprehensively deepening reform and the report of the 19th CPC National Congress, we can find that these contents are originally the proper meaning of China's promotion of comprehensively deepening reform, and are the only choice for China's high-quality economic development and continuous improvement of comprehensive national strength, it is not a temporary response to external pressure.

Regarding the outcome of the consultation, if you look at it from a longer timeline, no matter what the outcome is today, it does not matter. The important thing is, no matter how big the wind and rain, do your own thing well. As Lu Mai, secretary-general of the China Development Research Foundation, said, China is taking its own path, and this path is certain to go on.

Lu Mai believes that everyone is looking forward to reducing uncertainty, but it takes a process to reach the final result. In short, there is still a long way to go, but China is taking its own road. This road is bound to go on and will certainly enable people to see a bright future.