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Recently, Sun Ruizhe, president of the China Textile Industry Federation, gave an authoritative interpretation of the spirit of the Central Economic work Conference and looked forward to the industry work in 2019. The following is the relevant content.

2018 Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out that my country's development is still in and will be in a period of important strategic opportunities for a long time. We must be good at turning crises into opportunities, turning crises into security, closely following the new connotations of important strategic opportunities, accelerating the optimization and upgrading of economic structure, and enhancing technological innovation capabilities. Deepen reform and opening up, accelerate green development, participate in the reform of the global economic governance system, and turn pressure into a driving force for accelerating high-quality economic development.

2019 marks the 70th anniversary of the founding of New China and the key year to win the first centenary goal of building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way. In 2019, after 40 years of reform and opening up, China's textile industry has also ushered in an important period of strategic opportunities, a key year for the industry to become stronger.

"The one who should take advantage of the power is also, and the one who cannot be lost is also". Dangers and opportunities coexist, and overcoming them is an opportunity, and losing them is a danger. The globalization background of production globalization, trade globalization, financial globalization and investment globalization has not only brought about the cross-border flow of goods and capital, but also brought about the conflict and integration of culture, lifestyle, values and ideology.

On the one hand, accelerating the optimization and upgrading of economic structure, enhancing the ability of scientific and technological innovation, deepening reform and opening up, strengthening the construction of ecological civilization, and participating in the global economic governance system will create the best development opportunities for China's textile industry from big to strong. On the other hand, the pressure of high costs has not been alleviated, the prices of domestic electricity, labor and other factors are still too high, the problems of financing difficulties and expensive financing have not been effectively solved for a long time, and the effect of "replacing business tax with value-added tax" on reducing the tax burden of textile enterprises is limited. the competition in the international market is becoming more fierce, and these objective problems will also add multiple uncertain development risks to the development of China's textile industry.

　　I. Basic Operation Situation of Textile Industry in 2018

Looking back on this year, the results of the supply-side structural reform of my country's textile industry have gradually emerged, the supply structure has been adjusted and optimized, profit growth has improved significantly, the industry's adaptability and flexibility to changes in demand have continued to improve, and the performance of the domestic and foreign markets has been stable, stimulating investment and The efficiency indicators have been steadily adjusted. Overall, the tone of the industry's "stable operation" has not changed.

However, the external environment faced by the whole industry is undergoing obvious changes. China's economy is in the stage of high-speed growth to high-quality development, the growth rate of some macroeconomic indicators is slowing down, and the growth of domestic demand is slowing down. At the same time, the destruction of the global free trade system, the deterioration of the trade environment, the decline of consumer confidence, and the increase of international investment risks are also the risks and pressures faced by China's textile industry. The whole industry needs to accelerate the promotion of high-quality development and continue to enhance the ability to resist risks.

1. Maintain the tone of smooth operation

1) The domestic and foreign markets performed well.

Since 2018, the growth rate of domestic retail sales of textiles and clothing in China has been significantly better than that of the previous two years, and the industry has achieved certain results in enhancing effective supply. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2018, the national retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitting textiles above designated size were 1219.8 billion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.1 percent, and the growth rate was 0.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year; online retail continued to maintain rapid growth From January to November, the national retail sales of online wearing goods increased by 21.2 year-on-year, and the growth rate was 3.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year.

Textile and garment products still show a relatively stable international market competitiveness. In 2018, the industry export market showed a sustained recovery. According to customs express data, from January to November 2018, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 253.958 billion billion US dollars, an increase of 4.4 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate increased by 2.8 percentage points over the same period last year. Among them, textile exports were 109.302 billion US dollars, an increase of 9.3 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 5.3 percentage points higher than that of the same period last year; clothing exports were 144.656 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.9 percent over the same period last year, and the growth rate was 1 percentage point higher than that of the same period last year.

2) Industry investment slows down steadily

In 2018, the overall investment structure of China's textile industry has been adjusted, and the growth rate of investment has slowed down steadily. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to November 2018, the completion of fixed asset investment in the textile industry increased by 5.4 year-on-year, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. In terms of different industries, the textile industry grew 4.9 percent year-on-year, the chemical fiber industry grew 34.9 percent year-on-year, maintaining rapid growth for eight consecutive months, while investment in the clothing industry fell 1.9 percent year-on-year.

Some industrial agglomeration provinces are constrained by factors such as rising manufacturing costs and strict environmental supervision. Such as Guangdong Province, Zhejiang Province, Shandong Province and other traditional textile provinces, the industry investment has declined. Affected by factors such as industrial policy adjustments, the growth rate of investment in Xinjiang's textile industry has also fallen rapidly.

3) The growth rate of benefits has gradually picked up.

Affected by factors such as good market performance and relatively stable investment, the growth rate of the textile industry has gradually picked up. From January to October 2018, textile enterprises above designated size achieved a total of 4682.68 billion billion yuan in main business income, a year-on-year increase of 4.1 percent, and the growth rate was 0.02 percentage points faster than the first half of this year; the total profit was 222.12 billion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 7.7 percent, which was higher than this year. The growth rate in the first half of the year was 5.3 percentage points. In each sub-industry, chemical fiber, textile machinery industry benefits lead the whole industry. From January to October, the main business income and total profit of the chemical fiber industry increased by 14.2 and 18.9 respectively, and the main business income and total profit of the textile machinery industry increased by 9.8 and 9.9 respectively.

The operation quality of the textile industry is basically stable, and the profit level and capital turnover efficiency have improved compared with the same period last year. From January to October 2018, the sales profit margin of textile enterprises above designated size was 4.74, an increase of 0.16 percentage points from the same period last year; the total asset turnover rate was 1.3 times/year, a slight increase from the same period last year.

2, the external environment is complex and severe.

1) the market demand situation is not clear

At present, my country's economy is shifting from a stage of rapid growth to a stage of high-quality development. The domestic and international environment is complex and severe, market expectations are facing downward pressure, and the consumer demand situation is uncertain.

In the domestic market, the foundation supporting the accelerated growth of consumer demand continues to weaken. In the first three quarters, the per capita disposable income of Chinese residents increased by 6.6, down 0.9 percentage points from the same period last year. The profit growth rate of enterprises above designated size decreased faster than the previous year, and the support for the increase in the salary level of employees has weakened. The domestic consumer confidence index since the second half of the year has also declined compared with the first half of the year.

In the international market, although the growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports to the United States, the European Union and Japan is higher than that of the same period last year, some analysts believe that the economic growth of the United States has peaked and there is a downside risk to the recovery. and with the weakening of the stimulus effect of tax cuts and fiscal stimulus on the economy and consumption, consumption growth may slow down, the supporting effect on consumption has weakened; Japan's GDP in the third quarter has been negative growth for the second time in the year, and personal consumption has been negative growth on a month on month basis, which is not conducive to the accelerated growth of demand in the next stage.

2) Increased uncertainty in the trade environment

In 2018, the progress of Sino-US trade conflict negotiations was tortuous. Recently, the leaders of China and the United States reached a preliminary consensus on economic and trade issues at the G20 summit. The two sides decided to stop escalating tariffs and other trade restrictions. The United States announced that it would suspend the measures originally scheduled to increase tariffs on January 1, 2019. At present, China's textile and clothing export data does not reflect the impact of tax increases, the positive information delivered at the meeting will also stabilize the confidence of enterprises in the industry, it is expected that the impact of trade friction on China's textile industry during the year is relatively limited. However, if the two sides fail to reach an agreement on intellectual property protection, forced technology transfer and other issues within 90 days, the additional tariffs on US $200 billion exports to the United States will still be increased from 10% to 25%. Carpets, some industrial textiles, etc. Exports to the United States account for a large proportion of my country's exports. The impact needs to be assessed in time, and the companies involved will be significantly affected. Unilateral trade protectionism launched by the United States is in line with its historical practice. Now that the U.S. trade deficit with China accounts for nearly 50%, and China's total GDP accounts for more than 60% of U.S. GDP, it is not difficult to predict that the United States has launched a trade censure against China to prevent technology transfer and curb the upgrading and development of related industries. Although the leaders of China and the United States have recently reached a consensus, from the perspective of long-term development, there is a risk that Sino-US economic and trade relations will remain completely stable.

At the same time, China's textile industry is also facing multi-party competition from Cambodia, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan, India, Sri Lanka and other countries in the international market, and the uncertainty of the trade environment continues to increase.

In 2018, although the complexity of the current macro environment at home and abroad has increased and risk factors have increased, overall it will not have a significant impact on the textile industry in the short term. Although the uncertainty of the trade environment has risen, and the stability of textile companies' orders has also been directly affected, the current tax increase list announced by the United States has not yet covered a large proportion of export products such as clothing and home textiles, so it is not expected to cause a major impact on the export of the textile industry during the year. Overall, the textile industry maintained a stable operation in 2018. The total export growth rate of textiles and clothing could reach more than 4%. The main business income of textile enterprises above designated size increased by about 5% year-on-year, and the total profit increased by about 7% year-on-year.

In 2019, the world economy will still be on the track of recovery, but the negative impact of risk factors such as the contraction of liquidity caused by the US dollar interest rate hike and the intensification of US trade protectionism on global economic growth will gradually appear. The IMF's latest report, released in October, lowered its forecast for global economic growth in 2019 to 3.7 percent from 3.9 percent previously, and growth rates across economies were also generally lowered, with a more pronounced slowdown in demand growth in international markets. Affected by changes in the external environment, the pressure on China's macroeconomic operation will also increase, and the attention to Sino-US trade frictions will continue to increase. At the same time, problems such as rising factor costs, increasing pressure on environmental protection, financing difficulties and expensive financing will still affect the operation of the industry for a long time; the shortage of cotton supply is prominent, and the import quota policy will also have an important impact on the smooth operation of the whole industry chain. On the whole, the domestic and foreign market environment faced by China's textile industry in 2019 has changed steadily, various risk factors have also increased, and the operating pressure will increase compared with 2018. The whole industry needs to continue to further promote supply-side structural reform, strive to achieve steady progress in the development of the industry, improve quality in stability, and make due contributions to building a moderately prosperous society in an all-round way.

　　Second, the textile industry in 2019 to focus on several aspects of work

The 2018 Central Economic Work Conference clearly pointed out the "six stable" goals, namely: further stabilizing employment, stabilizing finance, stabilizing foreign trade, stabilizing foreign investment, stabilizing investment, and stabilizing expectations, boosting market confidence, and enhancing the people's sense of gain and happiness, To maintain sustained and healthy economic development and overall social stability, lay a decisive foundation for the completion of a well-off society in all respects, and celebrate the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People's Republic of China with outstanding achievements. Accordingly, the future development of China's textile industry should also be based on these "six stability", that is, by adhering to the general tone of seeking progress while maintaining stability, adhering to the new development concept, persisting in promoting high-quality development, adhering to the supply-side structural reform as the main line, persisting in deepening market-oriented reform and expanding high-level opening up, strengthen the industry status of the textile industry as the vanguard of opening up, the forerunner of economic system reform, and the mother of the industrialization process, continue to seek all-round and pioneering development, and make multi-dimensional and historic contributions.

This requires us to further uphold the development dialectics of the unity of speculation and empirical evidence, and deeply sort out the insufficient and unbalanced development contradictions in the process of transformation and upgrading. From the perspective of unity of opposites, the perspective of mutual change of quality, and the perspective of negation of negation, we should not only see clearly the "danger" we are facing, but also find the "opportunity" hidden, and take the initiative to explore, actively break the impression of low-cost, high-pollution, labor-intensive industries, highlight the new industrial label of "science and technology, fashion and green" in China's textile industry, and shape innovation-driven science and technology industry, responsibility-oriented green industry and culture-led fashion industry.

"The more you know, the more you act; the more you act, the better you know." In 2019, the China Textile Industry Federation will be guided by Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era, deeply understand and implement the spirit of the Central Economic Work Conference, adhere to the general tone of the work of seeking progress while maintaining stability, and strengthen confidence, Maintain determination, enhance predictability and pertinence, carry out solid service work around "technology, fashion, and green", and promote high-quality development of the industry.

1. Do a good job in government decision-making support and create an environment for the healthy development of the industry.

In view of the relatively concentrated situation of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in the textile industry, in order to enhance the endogenous driving force of economic development, promote entrepreneurship and innovation and employment expansion as the goal, in-depth industrial research is carried out to provide a basis for scientific decision-making by government departments.

1) Touch the development of the industry, business conditions, to create a fair business environment. Make government decisions to reduce taxes and fees, improve financing services, enhance enterprise innovation capabilities, and help small and medium-sized technological enterprises to quickly enter the market with innovative products and services, and support enterprises to participate in the construction of national technological innovation centers, national key laboratories, and key core technologies Tackling key problems and formulating national standards.

2) Pay close attention to the new developments in the international environment such as the Sino-US trade conflict, and do a good job in the situation.

2. Fight the three major battles and serve the overall national strategy.

Focusing on the three major battles, we will fight the battle to prevent and resolve major risks, fight the battle to get rid of poverty, fight the battle to prevent and control pollution, and address outstanding problems and key battles, and identify the integration points of industry work. Promote the steady development of the industry, so that the industry in stable employment, stable finance, stable foreign trade, stable foreign investment, stable investment, stable expectations to play a greater role.

Specifically include:

1) Take employment promotion and industrial transfer as the starting point to promote industrial poverty alleviation, regional coordination and rural revitalization; deepen industry social responsibility work, and enhance social responsibility work in energy conservation and emission reduction, reducing the use of toxic and harmful chemicals, intellectual property protection and enterprises The normative role of credit construction guides the industry to optimize its production capacity structure and develop a green supply chain;

2) Implement the key tasks of the country to promote all-round opening up, take international conferences and professional exhibitions as the platform, and focus on international production capacity cooperation to promote the opening up of the industry and the construction of the Belt and Road;

3) Deepen the work of military-civilian integration in the industry, improve the docking of services and resources, and promote the research and revision of military (textile) standards.

3, promote high-quality development, improve industrial services.

Promoting the high-quality development of the manufacturing industry is the first of the seven key tasks identified by the Central Economic Work Conference. Focusing on the supply-side structural contradictions in the operation of the textile industry, using market-oriented and rule-of-law methods, we will work hard on the eight words of "consolidation, enhancement, promotion, and smooth flow" to promote coordination, optimize configuration, and deepen services to promote the high quality of the textile industry development.

Specifically include:

1) Promote the deep integration of advanced manufacturing and modern service industries in the textile industry. Deepen industry-finance cooperation, serve the real economy, and solve the practical difficulties of private enterprises and small and medium-sized enterprises in the industry. Actively guide enterprises to participate in the industrial investment and financing policies and programs issued by the state. Further implement the Three-Year Action Plan for the Integration of Industry and Finance in the Textile Industry, establish a database of key enterprises, promote the docking of industry and finance, pay attention to the development of the science and technology board, and guide enterprises to go public;

2) The textile industry should also promote the formation and development of new technologies, new organizational forms, and new industrial clusters. Further improve the public service platform for small and medium-sized enterprises, stimulate the vitality of micro-entities, combine bigger and stronger with specialization and refinement, promote the collaboration of industry, university, research and application, and the integration of large and medium-sized enterprises; focus on enhancing technological innovation capabilities, and build an open, collaborative and efficient Common technology research and development platform, and improve the demand-oriented, enterprise-based integrated innovation mechanism of industry-university-research;

3) to speed up the cultivation of world-class advanced textile industry clusters, targeted professional meetings, characteristic activities and clusters to match, to help the cluster to expand the market, expand the influence, for the construction of small towns to introduce industrial genes.

4. Promote coordinated regional development and strengthen science and technology and brand building.

Relying on the two important value levers of science and technology and brand building, we will make overall efforts to promote the large-scale development of the western region, the comprehensive revitalization of the northeast, the rise of the central region, and the first development of the eastern region. Promote the development of urbanization, improve the level of fine management of industrial clusters and high value-added, connotative development.

Specifically include:

1) Deepen the construction of science and technology services and talents in the industry, and guide key technological innovation in the industry in the form of academic conferences, technology promotion, achievement appraisal, special awards, standard cultivation, and innovation alliances. Actively promote the research and development and industrialization of high-performance, functional and ecological fiber materials, etc.; develop intelligent manufacturing in the industry, promote intelligent products, intelligent manufacturing and intelligent operation; develop green printing and dyeing, comprehensive utilization of waste textiles and other environmental protection technologies;

2) Deepen the construction of science and technology services and talents in the industry, and speed up the cultivation of manufacturing brands, consumer brands and regional brands with masters, big brands and major events as the starting point. Deepen the research on industrial culture and traditional culture of the industry, publish fashion trends, and improve fashion design capabilities; improve the brand service system, optimize and strengthen China International Fashion Week and other activities, and enhance the right to speak in fashion;

3) Through technology and brand work, improve the level of the industrial chain, and focus on the use of technological innovation and scale effects to form new competitive advantages. Strive to meet the final demand, improve product quality, improve the consumption environment, enhance consumption ability, so that consumers can wear and use comfortably.

"If you travel through the river, you will swim fast, but if you go along, you will not be fascinated." Adhering to the rational work direction and scientific development goal, and centering on "science and technology, fashion and green", we should be good at deepening our ideological understanding in summing up experience, opening up the working situation in exploring laws, being upright, down-to-earth and conscientious, by locating the main contradictions in the development of the industry, planning the key tasks in the service of the industry, focusing on the important starting point with a definite object, Establish a long-term platform mechanism for systematic development and enhance the sense of concern, maintain strategic determination, forge core advantages, and ultimately shape a new pattern of supply in the textile industry that prioritizes benefits and focuses on quality; a new pattern of common development, shared results, and win-win benefits; excellent in and out, interconnected and inclusive, and open A new pattern of cooperation oriented to the new pattern, as well as a new ecological pattern of green environmental protection, green water and green mountains, and sustainability as the standard.