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Black 5. Christmas is approaching, many small and medium-sized export enterprises in the domestic textile field are actively preparing for the year-end sales season, but on the other hand they are full of worries about the future. The reason for the concern is that the other day, the United States started the process of withdrawing from the Universal Postal Union (Universal Postal Union). It is reported that if a new agreement with the Universal Postal Union is not reached in the next year, the United States will formally withdraw.

It is reported that since the establishment of the Universal Postal Union, it has always followed the principle of developed countries to support international exchanges in developing countries. For example, the U.S. Postal Service has to provide some freight subsidies for parcel goods sent from developing countries to the United States. However, with the rise of e-commerce, especially after cross-border e-commerce is becoming more and more prosperous, a large number of daily consumer goods such as textiles and clothing are shipped from developing countries to developed countries such as the United States through lower rates in the form of postal parcels. Domestic businesses noticed the contrast of this subsidy and began to oppose this mechanism.

So, if the United States to withdraw from the alliance will have what impact on the textile and garment industry, domestic small and medium-sized sellers and how to deal?

How much will SMEs be affected?

Some experts predict that for those Chinese cross-border e-commerce sellers who have already built their own overseas warehouses and used third-party logistics companies, the US Postal's price increase may not have much impact. But for those small and medium-sized sellers who use postal delivery, the impact of the logistics cost increase is not small.

At present, many cross-border online shopping clothing products will use multinational postal services in the delivery process. This part of the express delivery business mainly comes from small and medium-sized e-commerce and manufacturers that use cross-border e-commerce platforms. These enterprises generally sell scattered and have no overseas warehouses. They usually leave the country in international postal parcels, and postal parcels can go directly through express declaration channels without customs declaration.

Statistics show that the withdrawal of the United States from the Universal Postal Union will cause such small and medium-sized e-commerce and manufacturers that use international postal parcels to lose 40% to 70% of the postage discount, and the proportion of logistics costs to the total cost of each transaction may increase to 40% or even higher, which will deal a big blow to it.

The reporter contacted a number of e-commerce and textile and garment enterprises to listen to what they said:

Fujian

"Quanzhou advantage products such as shoes and boots, clothing and other annual exports to the European and American markets accounted for more than half of the total export value, the postal service is an important logistics mode. The impact of the U.S. withdrawal from the UPU on local cross-border e-commerce is huge. Overall, the impact on goods with low customer unit prices is particularly large, and the proportion of freight in the overall cost composition will rise significantly." Fujian Quanzhou cross-border electricity supplier association responsible person said.

Guangdong

It is understood that most of the goods sold by cross-border e-commerce companies are products with fierce market competition, such as clothing, shoes, bags, cosmetics, etc. In order to attract customers, the postage of the goods is usually paid by the seller. A seller who has been engaged in cross-country online sales of clothing in Guangdong all the year round told reporters that although the international postal system takes a long time to transport, the transportation cost is low. For small amounts of goods, the increase in postage will increase the seller's logistics costs, the seller's revenue will be significantly reduced. He believes that if the United States withdraws from the Universal Postal Union, it will depend on the product pricing ability of domestic small and medium-sized sellers, which will further test the comprehensive competitiveness and operation skills of sellers. However, this part of the increase in logistics costs will also be passed on to consumers. "Our profit itself is not high. If the logistics cost increases, it will also be reflected in the price of goods, which will be shared by local consumers in the United States." The seller said.

Zhejiang

The person in charge of a small manufacturing enterprise from Ningbo, which mainly produces shoes and hats, said that at present, about half of the cross-border export goods of the enterprise are sent by postal international small packages. If the United States really "retreats", the export business of the enterprise will be directly impacted. He told reporters that there are two main ways to send goods to the United States. One is direct mail through postal parcels. In addition, in order to improve the customer experience, enterprises also send containers to Amazon's overseas warehouses so that customers can receive the goods as soon as possible. He believes that this is also a development trend in the future.

Shandong

"We are now shipping through overseas warehouses, and the proportion of self-delivery is almost small." The head of the international business of a home textile company located in Gaomi, Shandong, told reporters that since the company directly established overseas warehouses in the United States in 2012, the goods were sent to overseas warehouses by sea and then sent to consumers by local express delivery in the United States. Even if the United States really "retreats", it will not have a particularly big impact on the company's business. He said that in the future, companies will transform to produce high-tech products. Although more energy is invested in the early stage, as time grows, product profits will increase and more competitive advantages will be accumulated.

Overseas warehouse has advantages and disadvantages

However, due to the large investment in building overseas warehouses, only enterprises with a certain scale will build their own warehouses, and most small and medium-sized enterprises use the way of renting warehouses. "The original self-shipping sellers, to build their own overseas warehouse or rent overseas warehouse pressure cost and risk is also very large." Some experts believe that sellers have to make overall adjustments in the cycle of production, loading, transportation and other links, and have higher requirements for capital turnover. The overstocked inventory from overseas warehouses is more expensive than the product itself. In addition, the hard wound of the overseas warehouse model is tariffs, and overseas warehouses cannot enjoy the benefits of tax exemption for single items under $800 in the United States. For sellers who have grown to a certain size, have stable sales and more money, consider overseas positions.

The high cost of investment in overseas warehouses is a pressure on small sellers, especially low value, low value-added, direct mail sellers who rely on running volume to survive and develop are at great risk, and may even withdraw from the market directly.

In general, everything has two sides. Although the withdrawal of the United States from the Universal Postal Union has increased the operating and operating costs of small and medium-sized sellers, it is also an opportunity for self-improvement. Based on the long-term perspective, getting rid of low-price competition, enhancing the added value and competitiveness of products, and cultivating customer loyalty are the fundamental ways to deal with such policy risks. Polishing products with core competitiveness is the real kung fu of the seller.

U.S. "retreat" still has a buffer.
Within the next year, the United States will conduct bilateral or multilateral negotiations on new rules within the Universal Postal Union; if no agreement can be reached, the United States will withdraw from the Universal Postal Union. In other words, the withdrawal of the United States from the Universal Post has not yet taken effect. Before the negotiation is completed, cross-border e-commerce will continue to use the original freight policy. For cross-border e-commerce companies, the upcoming peak season at the end of 2018 will not be greatly affected.

"The proportion of my own shipments has reached 90%, and if the U.S. market really can't do it, I'll go to Southeast Asia to look for opportunities. It will take at least one year for the U.S. to really withdraw from the Universal Postal Union, and it should be too late to prepare for the transformation in one year." A seller engaged in the export of knitted underwear in Quanzhou, Fujian, told reporters that in recent years, many traditional factories in Quanzhou have begun to transfer their production capacity to Southeast Asia, and he is also planning to go to Indonesia with the factory to inspect the market. On the one hand, we will see whether the mode of foreign procurement, domestic operation and product sales in Europe and the United States can work. On the other hand, we also want to see how the local consumer market is and shift the focus of cross-border exports to Southeast Asia.

At present, the overall sales of the e-commerce market in Southeast Asian countries have maintained rapid growth. According to statistical analysis, Indonesia is the largest and fastest growing B2C e-commerce market in Southeast Asia, while Thailand ranks second. In terms of overall market growth, Vietnam has the fastest performance. Vietnam's e-commerce market has always been regarded as one of the fastest growing e-commerce markets in the world. From the data, it can be seen that Vietnam has maintained a continuous growth rate of more than 20% since 2013, and the market value of Vietnam will exceed 10 billion in 2020. Dollar.

However, industry insiders warn that the United States can impose barriers on direct mail goods exported to the United States from other countries. At present, there are loopholes in the supervision of cross-border e-commerce in various countries. Only when the regulatory environment is stable can the industry be truly stable. Therefore, in addition to seeking more solutions in logistics, sellers should consider the overall operation.