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From the "double control" to the National Day, the market is surging, the news is more active. Limiting production and electricity has a greater impact on the textile industry. Following the high domestic nylon prices in September, the raw material end strong support, power cuts to boost the market, inventory fell sharply, domestic nylon prices continued to heat up in October.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of October 29, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY (superior product; 70D/24F) quoted 21360 yuan/ton, up about 600 yuan/ton or 2.74 from the end of last month. Nylon POY (superior products; 86D/24F) quoted 19100 yuan/ton, up 4.0 from last month's reserve price, 775 yuan/ton; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) The price was reported at 22925 yuan/ton, up 625 yuan/ton or 2.74 from the end of last month.

From the perspective of price trends, the domestic nylon market has continued to be high and rising since September. Prices continued to rise in mid-to-early October, and prices stabilized in the second half of October. If it is said that the domestic nylon price rose in September, mainly affected by the upstream raw materials, then the nylon market in October on the one hand by the raw material prices have fallen, but still at a high level to continue to support, the most important is to restrict electricity production reduction policy. Under the influence of the double control policy, the nylon industry has not been spared, nylon-related enterprises will be subject to certain restrictions on the start-up rate, Jiangsu nylon manufacturers continue to stop production or partial production, inventory further reduced.

Power rationing leads to production cuts

In terms of power rationing measures, the possibility of extending to the beginning of next year cannot be ruled out, and the impact on all walks of life may be deepened.

Back in September, the double control seems to start with the energy consumption barometer. The eight provinces that did not meet the standards have stricter policy styles in terms of energy consumption control. Among them, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and other provinces have limited production and electricity, which has a greater impact on the textile industry. Big. At the beginning of the production limit, downstream controlled yarn mills, etc., expectations for the production limit generally ended in early October. Subsequently, the coal shortage, coal power upside down and other news, to a certain extent, extended the market's expectations of the power policy. In other words, in the last two months of the end of the year, the double limit situation will become more and more severe, and the operating rate of chemical fiber enterprises will also face a sustained low level. The sluggish market brought about by the production line restriction and the continuous low operating rate is fatal to textile and chemical fiber enterprises. Under the surge in cost, textile and chemical fiber enterprises can only choose the way of price increase to transfer the pressure to the downstream, "self-help". Since October, the price increase of nylon enterprises has not stopped. Some enterprises even remind customers to confirm whether they have goods and the stock cycle before purchasing.

Upstream raw materials, although down, but still at a high level

　　In September, the supply of cyclohexanone, the upstream raw material of nylon, was tight, and the market continued to rise. In September, the domestic cyclohexanone market rose sharply. According to the monitoring data of the Business News Agency, the average price of the domestic cyclohexanone market at the beginning of the month was 10720 yuan/ton, and the average price of the domestic cyclohexanone market at the end of the month was 12760 yuan/ton, an increase of 19.03 in the month and a year-on-year increase of 90.86.

In October, according to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of October 29, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 11560 yuan/ton, down 780 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, but the price was still high. From October 18 to October 25, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market fell from 12820 yuan/ton to 11560 yuan/ton, a decline of 9.83 per cent in the week, and prices fell 10.25 per cent month-on-month, up 97.61 per cent year-on-year. In October, after returning from the festival, driven by the demand for the new production of cyclohexanone plant, the raw material pure benzene market rose first, and the downstream solvent of cyclohexanone was actively purchased, forming a short-term support for the cyclohexanone market. However, the downstream chemical fiber market is generally, and the enthusiasm for purchasing high-priced cyclohexanone is significantly lower than before the National Day, and some cyclohexanone factories have high inventories, giving priority to profit-making shipments. At present, the domestic cyclohexanone traders mentality is empty, cyclohexanone transaction center of gravity fell. Although the cost side support is obvious, the short-term supply of cyclohexanone exceeds demand. Business agency cyclohexanone analysts expect short-term cyclohexanone market narrow volatility.

In September, domestic nylon prices rose, mainly affected by upstream raw materials. PA6 is the main raw material of nylon civil silk, and in September, PA6 was strongly pulled up by the price of caprolactam, the upstream raw material. As of September 29, the mainstream offer price of sample enterprises for China sticky 2.75-2.85 was around 17333.33 yuan/ton, up 11.59 percent from the average price at the beginning of the month and 66.13 percent from the same period last year.

According to the data of the business agency's bulk list, the recent trend of PA6 domestic market has declined, with spot prices of various brands mainly coming back. As of October 28, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China sticky 2.75-2.85 was around 17533.33 yuan/ton, up and down by +1.15 compared with the average price level at the beginning of the month. Recent caprolactam on the PA6 cost end support stable, PA6 spot prices fell. Terminal demand is lower, the centralized replenishment market is basically over. On-site trading desolation affects business confidence, and PA6 spot prices are expected to fall slightly in the short term.

Downstream market demand is not strong

On the demand side, the traditional peak season is coming, and the downstream market demand is slightly increased. According to the usual practice, the market trading atmosphere will pick up after the National Day. After the National Day, with the further release of downstream orders, there are too many uncertainties in the market this year. Environmental protection policies such as double restrictions affect the load of terminal enterprises, the situation of users taking goods is not strong, and there is a lot of wait-and-see atmosphere in the market.

After the market forecast

At present, the nylon market is supported by the price of raw materials, the impact of power reduction, nylon prices high operation. With the end of the traditional peak season of demand, coupled with the double limit and other environmental protection policies affecting the load of terminal enterprises, the situation of users taking goods is lower, the desolation of on-site trading affects the confidence of businesses, and there is more wait-and-see atmosphere in the field. As the power restriction policy continues, the raw material side has fallen. It is expected that in the short term, the spot price of nylon will run at a high level and smoothly, and there is no expectation of rising, or it will fall slightly.