Demand is weak, spandex prices are running under pressure.
Release time:
2021-10-18
Since mid-September, the price of spandex market has continued to consolidate. Although it has fallen from the high level of the year, it is still at a high level. During the holiday period, the spandex industry chain did not change much, affected by the domestic power rationing, the overall operating load of the chemical fiber weaving industry was limited, the demand follow-up just needed to be general, and the raw material end remained consolidated and firm. Careful wait-and-see inside the field.
Spandex main raw material PTMEG market continued high finishing. As the BDO market continues its upward trend, cost pressures increase. However, with the restart of the PTMEG Great Wall energy device, the overall operating rate will increase, the supply of incremental expectations, spandex demand to follow up the stable situation, manufacturers to negotiate a high level. Domestic 1800 molecular weight bulk water offers are concentrated at 47,000-49,000 yuan/ton, and actual negotiations refer to 46,000-48,000 yuan/ton.
Pure MDI fluctuated and sorted out, the market consolidated and absorbed more gains, the post-holiday transaction atmosphere was general, the secondary market followed the market, the supplier kept advancing, the supply and demand game on the market, and the demand performance was general. However, due to the export gap still existing on the supplier, the export volume was expected to break through the previous year's high point, buffering the imbalance between domestic supply and demand. In addition, the strong atmosphere of raw material-end products supported the overall market, however, affected by demand constraints, do not rule out the possibility of slow growth. At present, the mainstream offer in East China market is 22,000-23500 yuan/ton, and the mainstream offer for imported goods is 22,000-23,000 yuan/ton.
Weaving Order General
On the demand side, the start-up rate of downstream textile weaving enterprises showed a significant upward trend after the festival. After the end of the production restriction task of the main early-stage parking reduction enterprises, they mostly chose to start up and heat up during the festival. Although the start-up rate increased, considering that it coincided with the National Day holiday, most enterprises chose to extend the holiday to around the 5th-6th of this month. At present, the start-up rate of water jet loom enterprises increased to 50%, 19% higher than before the festival, the start-up rate of knitting machine enterprises increased to 5-6%, 13% higher than before the festival, and the start-up rate of circular machine maintained the pre-festival level. Local increase in the start-up rate, it is still difficult to change the low operating situation, "double limit" or will continue to the end of the year, so most enterprises load is difficult to significantly increase. Under the lack of production power, most market goods prefer to consume the inventory of the factory and cloth merchants. The early pressure of conventional gray cloth inventory is significant, and there is obvious room for relaxation in the near future. In addition to the rise of upstream textile raw materials, the frequency of orders placed by most domestic brand merchants has increased, and the freight of some seaport lines has shown a downward trend. Foreign customers' orders show signs of recovery compared with the previous period. However, considering that the impact of power rationing will continue, the downstream textile weaving enterprises start-up rate is more difficult to improve, or will maintain the current level of operation, overlay the follow-up terminal demand power is insufficient, although there are new single small signs of warming, but the sustainability is limited.
Spandex price pressure finishing
On this year's follow-up new production capacity, Xinxiang Egret and Xiaoxing (Ningxia) is expected to have new production capacity into the market within the year, new production capacity into the market, supply increase or even excess, is bound to affect the current spandex prices, the follow-up there is a reasonable possibility of correction. The current low inventory of spandex to support the market, the demand side only rely on some just need to follow up. Regional power limit production, the field wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, the current spandex demand surface guidance role is greater, followed by the double-control power limit to weaken, downstream inventory digestion, there is no lack of order recovery, demand pressure is expected to ease.
Spandex operating rate trend
Currently involved in Jiangsu and Zhejiang spandex enterprises, such as Xiaoxing (Jiaxing), Huahai, Taoguang, Confederation, Shuerzi, Qingrong, Sihai, Zhongbai spandex and other enterprises require power limit production 30%-50% range, Xiamen Lilong due to the requirements of the epidemic, the current full stop state. Fujian's power rationing policy was also issued in October, and Hengshen spandex also reduced its production appropriately.
On the whole, the starting load of terminal weaving increased slightly after the festival. Other chemical fiber raw materials such as polyester, nylon, viscose and cotton all rose sharply. Under the guidance of market buying sentiment, there are many customers who have made up their positions for spandex appropriately. The cost side has little influence on spandex at present. The follow-up of demand orders is the key factor affecting spandex. The follow-up of demand has been in a passive situation at present. However, under the influence of power restriction, may be good for the overall market supply and demand balance in the later period, short-term supply and demand of each product single link is disrupted, weaving follow-up uncertainties are many. On the spandex market, the follow-up spandex new enterprises smoothly put into production, weaving domestic and foreign orders without obvious changes, spandex high price storage greater pressure.
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