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Since 2019, the domestic and international development environment of China's textile industry has become more severe, the slowdown in market demand and the risk of trade environment are intertwined, and the challenges and difficult factors have increased significantly. The textile industry insists on deepening the structural reform of the supply side, continues to accelerate the transformation and upgrading, in the case of increasing pressure on production and operation, the resilience to resist the downward risk pressure continues to appear, the prosperity remains in the expansion range, and the economic operation situation is basically in line with the external situation.

　　Industry boom to maintain expansion, production to achieve low growth

Since 2019, the business climate of the textile industry has continued to be in the expansion range. According to the survey data of the China Textile Industry Federation, the prosperity index of the textile industry in the third quarter was 51.9, which continued to maintain an expansion range of more than 50, slightly lower than that in the second quarter by 0.1 points.

The start of the textile industry is generally normal, and production has maintained a steady growth at a low speed. According to the data of the National Bureau of statistics, in the first three quarters of 2019, the capacity utilization rate of textile industry (including spinning, weaving, dyeing and finishing, home textile, industrial use, etc.) was 78%, 2.6 percentage points lower than that of the same period of last year; the capacity utilization rate of chemical fiber industry was 83.1, 1.1 percentage points higher than that of the same period of last year; the capacity utilization rate of textile industry and chemical fiber industry was higher than that of 76.2. The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size in the textile industry increased by 2.9 year-on-year, and the growth rate was the same as the same period last year, and slowed by 0.7 percentage points from the first half of this year. In all links of the industrial chain, the production growth of the chemical fiber and industrial textiles industries was more stable. The industrial added value in the first three quarters increased by 12.3 and 7.4 respectively year-on-year, which were 9.4 and 4.5 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the entire industry.

　　Internal and external market pressure is not reduced, the network retail channel growth is good

Since 2019, the growth of China's textile and apparel domestic market has slowed down steadily, and online retail has continued to maintain double-digit rapid growth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first three quarters, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, and knitwear products above the national quota increased by 3.3 year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 5.6 percentage points from the same period last year, but accelerated by 0.3 percentage points from the first half of this year., Showing a sustained and slight recovery trend; the national online retail sales of wearing goods increased by 18.6 year-on-year, and the growth rate slowed by 4.7 and 2.8 percentage points.

The export pressure of the textile industry continues to increase. According to customs data, in the first three quarters, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 208.62 billion billion US dollars, down 2.3 percent from the same period last year, and the growth rate slowed by 7 and 0.3 percentage points respectively compared with the same period last year and the first half of this year. Among them, textile exports were 94.3 billion US dollars, up 0.4 per cent year-on-year, while clothing exports were 114.31 billion US dollars, down 4.5 per cent year-on-year. Although the Sino-US trade friction has not yet had an overall impact on the economic operation of the entire industry, the impact of the US tariff measures on exports has gradually emerged. In the first three quarters, my country's textile and clothing exports to the United States fell by 3.3 year-on-year; due to clothing, Home textiles and other bulk products exported to the United States began to impose a 15% import tariff on September 1, and my country's textile industry's exports to the United States fell by 18.8 that month.

　　Increased pressure on efficiency growth and a decline in the scale of investment

Since 2019, the profit pressure of the textile industry has increased, but the benefits of some links in the industrial chain are good. In the first three quarters, 34000 textile enterprises above designated size across the country achieved operating income of 3715.26 billion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.5 percent, and the growth rate slowed by 2.7 percentage points from the same period last year; the total profit realized was 156.15 billion billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.6 percent, and the growth rate was lower than 14.7 percentage points in the same period last year; the operating income profit margin was 4.2 percent, 0.4 percentage points lower than the same period last year. In each sub-industry, the total profits of the filament, printing and dyeing and knitting industries increased by 7.9, 4.7 and 3.7 respectively year-on-year, which were 15.5, 12.3 and 11.3 percentage points higher than the growth rate of the entire industry; the profit margins of the clothing, industrial textiles and textile machinery industries were stable at a relatively high level, at 5.2, 5.0 and 6.8 respectively, which were basically the same as the same period last year.

The scale of fixed asset investment in the textile industry has been reduced, and the regional layout has been continuously adjusted. In the first three quarters, the completion of fixed asset investment in the industry decreased by 7% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 12.8 and 5.7 percentage points lower than the same period last year and the first half of this year. In terms of different industries, the investment in the textile industry, clothing industry and chemical fiber industry decreased by 8.2, 2% and 15.4 respectively. From a regional point of view, Fujian Province in the east, Hubei and Hunan provinces in the middle and Chongqing in the west all show a good trend of positive growth in investment in the whole industry chain, which is a regional bright spot when the investment confidence of the whole industry is relatively low.

　　Uncertainty about the outlook will continue, and the task of high-quality development is urgent.

In the fourth quarter of 2019 and 2020, the complexity and uncertainty of the development environment of China's textile industry will continue. The slowdown in global economic growth has become a general expectation. It will take time for Sino-US economic and trade relations to restore stability. The overall export situation of the textile industry is not optimistic. However, at this stage, the lack of momentum for the improvement of international market demand and the rising risk of international trade environment have become the normal influencing factors, and it is an inevitable and urgent development task for the textile industry to continuously enhance its own development resilience and tap the potential of the domestic demand market. At present, the Chinese government puts the "six stability" work in a more prominent position, focusing on stabilizing employment, stabilizing finance, stabilizing foreign trade, stabilizing foreign investment, stabilizing investment, and stabilizing expectations. A series of policy measures to continuously improve the business environment, the overall stable fundamental support of the macro economy and a strong domestic market are the primary driving force and key to the future development of the textile industry. The textile industry will continue to fully implement the spirit of the 19th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, accelerate the promotion of high-quality development, strengthen the potential of domestic demand, cultivate effective investment and consumer demand, promote the adjustment of industry supply structure and the renewal of kinetic energy, further stabilize the competitiveness of the international market, and consolidate resistance The foundation of downward risk pressure ensures the overall stable economic operation, and makes due contributions to ensuring the stable operation of the national economy and building a well-off society in 2020. (China Textile Industry Federation Institute of Industrial Economics)