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On August 5, the RMB depreciated against the US dollar, breaking through 7 yuan.

Regarding the RMB breaking 7, Xu Hui (pseudonym), manager of a large clothing manufacturing company in Anhui, told a reporter from China Business News that he was already psychologically prepared.

However, the lock-up move that his company has already made may be temporarily affected to some extent by the latest exchange rate changes.

"In June, there was a direction in the market that the exchange rate would retreat from 6.8 to 6.5, which is why the company locked the foreign exchange between 6.7 and 6.8 and was still locking the foreign exchange last week." Xu Hui said.

In Xu Hui's view, the company's move to lock the exchange rate to 6.9 at the beginning of this year was "earned". Generally speaking, the exchange rate will be 4 to 5 months in advance, while the exchange rate in May to June this year is between 6.7 and 6.8. However, although he has repeatedly warned in the company group not to lock the exchange, he has not been able to prevent the company from changing the arrangement of locking the exchange in advance.

Different from Xu Hui's enterprise, Li Changchun, manager of Wujiang Weihua Textile Co., Ltd., told the first financial reporter that due to the small export scale of the company in recent years, it generally does not take measures to lock up foreign exchange.

Li Changchun said that this time the RMB exchange rate broke 7, which is good for the overall foreign trade, and it is more of an impact on the industry's psychological expectations.

Li Changchun believes that, on the one hand, foreign merchants themselves are also very shrewd. In the face of the devaluation of the RMB, they naturally have "psychological knowledge" when quoting and will adjust their quotations accordingly.

On the one hand, although devaluation will give Chinese products an advantage over foreign products in the international market, as far as the textile industry is concerned, there is more competition among domestic counterparts. Therefore, he believes that the impact of devaluation on the textile industry is relatively limited.

Xu Hui told the first financial reporter that as some textile enterprises rushed to ship goods last year and the first half of this year, orders to the United States increased, but personally expected the data to fall in the second half of this year and the whole year.

According to customs statistics, in the first half of this year, my country's imports and exports to the United States were 1.75 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 9%, of which exports to the United States were 1.35 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.6; imports from the United States were 399.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 25.7; and the trade surplus was 954.81 billion yuan, an increase of 12%.

On July 12, the State Council Information Office held a press conference. Li Kuiwen, spokesperson of the General Administration of Customs and Director of the Department of Statistical Analysis, introduced the import and export situation in the first half of 2019 and said that although the bilateral trade data between China and the United States has declined, my country's foreign trade The overall import and export figures continue to grow, and the world is still highly optimistic about the potential of the Chinese market.

In response to changes in foreign trade and domestic production costs, Xu Hui's company built a factory in Cambodia five years ago. However, because the local manufacturing advantages are not as obvious as expected compared with domestic ones, in recent years, the factory has also begun to be transferred to others for operation, and other considerations have been taken into account.

The market is still changing, and the possibility of RMB depreciation and appreciation exists at the same time.

Xu Hui said that although he personally does not support the continued foreign exchange lock, the company does not rule out that it will continue to lock the foreign exchange for a wait-and-see, because the results of the next negotiations may also improve. Once the proposed 10% tariff is canceled, the RMB may resume its appreciation.

Don't just stare at the exchange rate, companies also need to pay more attention to the physical business, which is the message that officials want to send.

When answering questions about the RMB exchange rate today, the relevant person in charge of the People's Bank of China also said that the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar has depreciated today, breaking through 7 yuan, but the RMB continues to remain stable and strong against a basket of currencies. This is market supply and demand and international A reflection of fluctuations in the foreign exchange market.

The person in charge stressed that enterprises are not expected to be too exposed to exchange rate risks and support enterprises to purchase exchange rate hedging products to avoid exchange rate risks. At the same time, it should also be noted that at present, the RMB exchange rate may either depreciate or appreciate, and two-way floating is the norm, and it is difficult for not only enterprises, but also more professional financial institutions to predict the trend of the exchange rate.

The person in charge suggested that we should focus on physical business, do not spend too much energy on judging or speculating on exchange rate trends, and establish a "risk-neutral" financial concept. The purpose of foreign exchange derivatives should be to lock in foreign exchange costs, reduce the uncertainty of production and operation, and realize the profit of the main business, rather than the profit of foreign exchange derivatives trading itself.

(Source: A financial network)