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On July 31, 2019, the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics and the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing released the China Purchasing Managers Index. In this regard, Zhao Qinghe, a senior statistician at the Service Industry Survey Center of the National Bureau of Statistics, interpreted it.

　　1. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index Rebound

In July, the manufacturing PMI was 49.7, 0.3 percentage points higher than the previous month, and rebounded for the first time since April, with many positive changes in the manufacturing sector. First, the business climate of the industry has expanded. Among the 21 industries surveyed, the PMI of 12 industries was in the expansion range, an increase of 3 from the previous month. Among them, tobacco, paper printing, medicine, electrical machinery and equipment, computer communication and electronic equipment and other manufacturing industries were more than 51.0 percent, and the industry showed rapid expansion. Textile, metal products, general equipment and other manufacturing PMI below the critical point, the industry business climate fell. Second, the overall expansion of production has accelerated and market demand has improved. The production index and the new orders index were 52.1 per cent and 49.8 per cent, up 0.8 and 0.2 percentage points respectively from the previous month, both for the first time in four months, especially as the production index was 0.7 percentage points higher than the average in the first half of the year. The willingness of enterprises to purchase has increased, and the purchasing volume index has returned to the expansion range, at 50.4 per cent. Third, the price index rebounded. The purchase price index and ex-factory price index of major raw materials were 50.7 per cent and 46.9 per cent, up 1.7 and 1.5 percentage points respectively from the previous month. Fourth, the import and export index rebounded simultaneously. The new export orders index and the import index, although below the critical point, both rebounded 0.6 percentage points month-on-month to 46.9 per cent and 47.4 per cent. Fifth, the development of enterprises is expected to be stable and good. The expected index of production and business activities of enterprises was 53.6 per cent, up 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, and policy measures such as tax and fee reductions and targeted downgrades were accelerated, further reducing the burden on enterprises and playing an important role in stabilizing enterprise confidence.

In terms of enterprise size, the PMI of large enterprises was 50.7 per cent, up 0.8 percentage points from the previous month and rising to the expansion range, while the PMI of small and medium-sized enterprises was 48.7 per cent and 48.2 per cent, down 0.4 and 0.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month.

　　2. non-manufacturing business activity index continues to expand rapidly

In July, the non-manufacturing business activity index was 53.7, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, and the non-manufacturing industry as a whole maintained rapid expansion.

The service sector continues to grow. The index of business activity in the service sector was 52.9 per cent, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month, with growth slowing. From the perspective of the industry, among the 21 industries surveyed, 20 industries are located in the expansion range, and the fundamentals of the service industry are generally good. Among them, the business activity index of railway transportation, air transportation, telecommunications and other industries has been in a relatively high boom range of 59.0 and above for three consecutive months, and the total business volume has continued to grow rapidly; driven by summer consumption, accommodation, catering, culture, sports and entertainment The business activity index of other industries rose by 5.3, 3.5 and 7.6 percentage points respectively from the previous month, and the industry's prosperity rose rapidly. Although the wholesale and financial business activity index continued to be in the expansion range, it fell from the previous month, which was the main factor for the slowdown in the expansion of the service industry. In terms of prices, the input price index and sales price index were 52.7 per cent and 50.5 per cent, up 1.6 and 1.4 percentage points respectively from the previous month, reflecting the recent activity in the service sector as a whole.

The construction industry continues to be in the higher boom range. Recently, affected by high temperature and heavy rain and other factors, the production expansion of the construction industry has slowed down, and the business activity index was 58.2, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous month. In terms of labor demand and market expectations, the employment index and business activity expectations index were 52.1 per cent and 63.7 per cent, up 1.7 and 1.1 percentage points respectively from the previous month, indicating that companies continue to be optimistic about the future market and labor demand continues to increase.

　　3. composite PMI output index rose slightly steadily

In July, the comprehensive PMI output index was 53.1, a slight increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month, indicating the steady expansion of the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises. The manufacturing production index and the non-manufacturing business activity index, which make up the composite PMI output index, were 52.1 per cent and 53.7 per cent, respectively, up and down from the previous month.

(Source: National Bureau of Statistics)