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During the Qingming holiday,The ninth round of high-level economic and trade consultations between China and the United States ended smoothly, the US non-agricultural data released more than expected, crude oil prices hit a new high and other heavy signals in the international market.At the same time, the domestic Xiangshui "3.21" particularly major explosion accident in Jiangsu has made the latest progress, and the Xiangshui Chemical Park will be completely closed. On the other hand, PTA device maintenance into the eventful autumn, still confusing.

With the end of the holiday, after the Qingming Festival, how will the chemical fiber market be interpreted?

The ninth round of China-US high-level economic and trade consultations in 1. ended smoothly, and non-agricultural data exceeded expectations.

Qingming holiday, the international market macro news worthy of market attention. On the one hand, the U.S. non-agricultural data exceeded expectations. The U.S. Department of Labor announced on Friday that the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 196000 in March, exceeding the expected 177000. The unemployment rate in March was 3.8, which was in line with expectations. The data was flat, and the salary growth rate was lower than expected. The number of non-agricultural employment was revised to increase by 33000.

On the other hand, the ninth round of China-US economic and trade consultations released a heavy signal. According to Xinhua News Agency, the latest consultations were fruitful and new consensus was reached on important issues such as the text of the economic and trade agreement. The two sides discussed the text of the agreement on technology transfer, intellectual property protection, non-tariff measures, service industry, agriculture, trade balance, implementation mechanism, etc. New progress has been made.

Second, the commodity market performance is significant: cloth oil exceeded $70/barrel.

Financial markets have also been boosted against the backdrop of a turnaround in the macroeconomic situation. On Friday, European and American stock markets rose, U.S. stocks hit a six-month high, including U.S. energy stocks collectively closed up, ExxonMobil rose 0.55 percent, Chevron rose 1.28 percent, ConocoPhillips rose 1.46 percent, Schlumberger rose 2.04 percent, EOG Energy rose 5.31 percent.

Commodity markets have performed equally well. The United States, cloth two oil rose more than 1%, cloth oil broke through 70 U.S. dollars/barrel, U.S. oil broke through 63 U.S. dollars/barrel, are continuing to brush the new high since November last year.

As the source of the chemical industry chain, the upward price of oil will support the overall price of chemical fiber products.

"From the end of last year to the beginning of this year, the rebound of the entire chemical industry was largely affected by the increase in crude oil prices on the cost side. During the Qingming holiday, international crude oil prices rose by nearly 2%, and the cost side will support product prices more significantly." Huang Liqiang, an energy and chemical analyst at Jinshi Futures, believes that from the current supply and demand situation, with the arrival of the peak consumption season, chemical inventories are expected to decline, and the supply and demand situation will further improve, superimposed on the rise in upstream crude oil prices. the price trend of the whole variety will show a strong trend.

In fact, since the beginning of this year, the energy and chemical sector has received continuous attention from the market. On the one hand, the crude oil market has frequently seen a long-short game pattern; on the other hand, the successive outbreaks of safety accidents have also made chemical products currently in dire straits.

3. Jiangsu completely closed the Xiangshui Chemical Industry Park, the impact on the chemical fiber market geometry?

It is understood that at the end of March, an accident occurred in a chemical plant in Xiangshui Ecological Park, Jiangsu Province. Then, explosions occurred in Kunshan and Taixing in Jiangsu Province on March 31 and April 3, respectively. Jiangsu Province also immediately started large-scale inspection and rectification of safety production in chemical enterprises and chemical parks.

According to the latest news from Xinhua News Agency, a meeting of the Standing Committee of the Municipal Party Committee held in Yancheng, Jiangsu on the 4th and pointed out that Xiangshui Chemical Park will be completely closed.

Jiangsu Xiangshui Chemical Industry Park has been completely closed. At present, the chemical market is in panic and fluctuates violently. The price rise seems to have arrived, and some products have even doubled.Analysts predict that this wave of rising market outlook will continue for a long time.

Many chemical industry analysts believe that in the long run, the explosion will have an impact on the entire chemical industry, relevant safety inspections will be strengthened, and the supply side will be greatly affected. Segmentation, directly affect the supply of chemical fiber raw materials, dye industry, resulting in related product prices, supply imbalance.

1, spandex raw material pure MDI price doubled

On March 28, Wanhua Chemical's price of polymeric MDI in April will rise sharply again. The listing price of the polymeric MDI distribution market in Wanhua Chemical China is 17800 yuan/ton (up 2600 yuan/ton from March), and the listing price in the direct selling market is 18300 yuan/ton (up 2800 yuan/ton from March); The listing price of pure MDI is 26200 yuan/ton (up 1500 yuan/ton from March).This is the third price increase of Wanhua Chemical MDI since the beginning of 2019.

According to relevant data, from December 25, 2018 to March 25, 2019, within 3 months, the price of aggregated MDI East China distributors rose from 11575 yuan to more than 15000 yuan. According to Wanhua Chemical's third quarterly report, the company still has 8 billion yuan in stock.

2, dye prices rose sharply

With the sharp rise of the upstream raw material MDI, the current polyurethane TPU and other products are also rising due to the rising cost, which has a follow-up effect. Shanghai Hengan Polyurethane Co., Ltd. recently issued a ''Notice Letter'' stating: From March 28, 2019, Hengan The price of polyurethane products of various brands will be increased by 1000 yuan/ton.

Compared with the impact of the Jiangsu explosion on Wanhua Chemical, a number of dye intermediate enterprises are the most direct undertakers, and some areas will face emergency suspension of production after a national safety inspection.

Up to now, thousands of enterprises in seven regions, including Henan Province, Jinhua City, Yancheng City, Suzhou City, Suqian City, Weifang City and Dongguan City, have implemented the policy of restricting production. The significant impact of the accident and the emergency shutdown of some enterprises led to a sharp rise in the price of dyes and some raw materials in the market.Zhejiang Longsheng as the industry's "largest" supplier of benzene diamine, recently because the core intermediate benzene diamine price increase 4 days 3 trading.

It is understood that since the "March 21" explosion accident in Jiangsu, it has not only affected dyes, but also the most important part of printing and dyeing as a textile port. Some scarce products have also affected the prices of resins, adhesives, and pesticides.Some manufacturers stopped quoting.

Three, PTA into the eventful autumn, device maintenance is still confusing

At the same time, at the end of the month and the beginning of April, the domestic PTA factory equipment maintenance news is flying everywhere, making PTA experience a "roller coaster" market. At present, PTA has entered an eventful autumn, and the maintenance of the device is still confusing.

1. Maintenance of constant force PTA device

On March 28, a 2.2 million-ton unit of Hengli was overhauled as planned. As soon as the news came out, PTA, which was silent in the weak market, ushered in a small rebound in the market. The spot price of East China's main port rose 2.86 percent from 6450 yuan/ton to 6640 yuan/ton. This round of rising to maintain 3 working days.

2. The maintenance plan of Yizheng and Fuhaichuang PTA devices has been postponed.

On April 2, Yizheng Petrochemical's 650000-ton PTA plant was originally planned to be overhauled for 15 days in June, but the plan is currently postponed. At the same time, Fuhaichuang's 4.5 million-ton PTA plant was originally planned to be inspected for half a month in May, but the plan is currently postponed. As soon as the two news came out, PTA ended the previous upward trend and began to turn around and fall. Spot in East China's main port fell 3.43 percent from 6640 yuan/ton to 6420 yuan/ton. This round of decline maintained 2 working days.

3. Some PTA plants publish maintenance plan

On the morning of April 4, Hengli Petrochemical announced that the 2.2 million-ton PTA plant on Line 1 was planned to be overhauled for 15 days on April 15. A 2.2 million-ton unit of Jiaxing Petrochemical is scheduled to be overhauled for 15-20 days on April 8. As soon as the news came out, the PTA market began to rebound again, but the rebound was relatively small. The spot of the main port of East China rose from 6420 yuan/ton to 6480 yuan/ton.

4. The maintenance plan of Fuhaichuang device shall be implemented as scheduled

On the afternoon of April 4, Fuhaichuang announced that the 4.5 million-ton PTA plant was out of service in May. At first, the inspection plan for May was implemented as scheduled. As soon as the news came out, the PTA market soared. By 15:00, the spot price in East China's main port had risen again to above 6600 yuan.

It is understood that from April to May, the maintenance of domestic PTA plants is concentrated, and the supply is expected to decrease. At the same time, the downstream polyester demand is good, and the market has favorable support. In the short term, the PTA spot market may maintain a high level of volatility. However, the new production of raw material PX still suppresses the market. Therefore, there is a possibility of weakening in the medium and long term.