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This year, China's foreign trade situation pressure is not small.According to customs statistics, in terms of RMB, China's total import and export value in the first two months of this year increased by only 0.7 percent year-on-year, while in terms of US dollars, China's total import and export value in the first two months of this year decreased by 3.9 percent.. China's textile and clothing exports are also under downward pressure.From January to February 2019, China's cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were $38.155 billion, down 11.6 percent from the same period last year, of which the cumulative exports of textiles were $17.38 billion, down 7.8 percent from the same period last year, and the cumulative exports of clothing were $20.775 billion, down 14.6 percent from the same period last year.Sino-US trade friction is obviously one of the influencing factors.

according to our understanding,Liu He, Member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee, Vice Premier of the State Council, and Chinese Leader of the China-US Comprehensive Economic DialoguewithUnited States Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer,Treasury Secretary MnuchinRecently, several rounds of telephone consultations were held on Sino-US economic and trade issues. The two sides agreed that Lighthizer and Mnuchin will be invited to visit China from March 28 to 29 to hold the eighth round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Beijing. Vice Premier Liu He will be invited to visit the United States in early April to hold the ninth round of high-level Sino-US economic and trade consultations in Washington.

People in the industry hope that Sino-US economic and trade frictions can be resolved smoothly and create a stable and predictable international trade environment for foreign trade enterprises.

China's foreign trade situation is expected to remain stable in the first quarter

at the regular press conference held by the ministry of commerce on 21 march,Ministry of Commerce spokesman Gao Fengsaid,In the first two months of this year, my country's total foreign trade import and export volume declined in US dollars, mainly due to the influence of the Spring Festival factor. Foreign trade enterprises over the years before and after the Spring Festival will appear "before the festival concentrated export, after the festival import first" business characteristics, from the historical data, the Spring Festival in the month of import and export have certain fluctuations. This year's Spring Festival is 11 days earlier than last year's. New Year's Eve to the 15th is in February, resulting in the impact of the Spring Festival being concentrated in February.

According to Gao Feng,Sino-US economic and trade friction is also one of the factors affecting the foreign trade situation in the first two months of this year.. In the second half of last year, some enterprises, considering the possible impact, concentrated imports and exports, and advanced part of their share of imports and exports to the United States in the first two months of this year.

peak said,Judging from the current situation, the growth rate of imports and exports rebounded in early March, and it is expected that my country's foreign trade imports and exports will remain stable in the first quarter of this year. From the perspective of the whole year, although the external environment of my country's foreign trade development is uncertain and unstable, the endogenous power is still increasing. The Ministry of Commerce will continue to promote the implementation of stable foreign trade policies, strengthen relevant policy reserves, and at the same time, through market diversification, support for cross-border e-commerce and other new business type, accelerate the level of trade facilitation and other measures, to promote the stability and quality of foreign trade.

Trade friction has a profound impact on the development of the industry.

In 2018, under the complicated international environment, China's foreign trade operation was generally stable and steady. According to data provided by the China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textiles, the total value of foreign trade imports and exports for the year was US $4.62 trillion billion, an increase of 12.6 percent; of which, exports were US $2.48 trillion billion, an increase of 9.9 percent; and imports were US $2.14 trillion billion, an increase of 15.8 percent. At the same time, China's textile and garment foreign trade has also achieved steady growth for two consecutive years.In 2018, the country's textile and apparel exports were US $276.73 billion billion, up 3.7 percent year-on-year, and imports were US $26.14 billion billion, up 6.4 percent year-on-year.

But at the same time, China's textile and clothing exports accounted for a small decline in the international market share. According to statistics from the World Trade Organization, China's textile and apparel exports accounted for the international market share after reaching a peak of 38.5 percent in 2015, and fell for two consecutive years. In 2017, the world share fell to 35.8 percent, of which the textile trade share was 37.1 percent, and the clothing share It dropped from 39.3 percent in 2015 to 34.9 percent in 2017.

Last year, China's textile and apparel products in the U.S. import market share was 36%, a decrease of 0.3 percentage points from 2017, while Vietnam's share was 10.5, an increase of 0.1 percentage points year-on-year; last year, China accounted for 33% of the EU import market share, a year-on-year decrease of 1 percentage point, while Bangladesh's share was 14.3, an increase of 0.6 percentage points year-on-year; for the whole of last year, china's import market share in Japan was 58%, a year-on-year decrease of 3 percentage points, while Vietnam's share was 12.6, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 percentage points.

Cao Jiachang, President of China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Textilesthink,The current Sino-US economic and trade friction will have a profound impact on the future development of the industry.. He said that at present, among the products that the US side has taxed, textile and clothing products are about 7 billion US dollars, accounting for 16% of China's total textile and clothing exports to the United States, and there are about 17000 export enterprises.Although the short-term impact of the US tax on China's textile and clothing is limited, and due to the "export rush" factor, China's exports to the United States last year maintained a rapid growth, but the uncertainty caused by Sino US economic and trade frictions has forced US buyers to make substantial adjustments to their procurement strategy and supply chain layout. This is especially true for long orders and forward orders that do not require high delivery speeds. For fast fashion orders with high delivery speed, it is difficult to transfer overseas in the short term due to the high requirements for supply chain efficiency and resource integration.

In addition, China's textile and garment industry is also facing the impact of other trade remedy cases. In 2018, my textile and clothing industry encountered a total of 14 trade remedy cases, of which 11 were newly established, involving 7 countries including Mexico, India, Argentina, Turkey, Egypt, Madagascar, and the United States, involving polyester staple fiber and flax yarn. Products such as polyester, denim, polyester processed silk; 3 sunset review investigations. The total amount involved in 14 cases is about $0.26 billion. Although the amount is not large, it also brings great difficulties to the enterprises that mainly deal with these products and markets.

What are the current trends in apparel purchasing in the United States?

Recently held in ShanghaiThe 7th International Textile Forum of China and Asia in 2019"on,Julie Hughes, President of the Fashion Industry Association of AmericaSpeech on the direction of US trade policy and apparel procurement trends. She said,For the current trade environment, the primary concern of American brands and retailers is trade protectionism and trade measures.. Other issues of concern include:Market competition from e-commerce, rising production and procurement costs, competition from traditional business methods, technological advances, supply chain management and the search for suppliers outside China. Concerns about trade policy have been the top concern for U.S. brands and retailers for the second year in a row.

So, what are the current trends in U.S. apparel procurement?

1.2018 years of traditional sources of procurement

According to the 2018 industry benchmark study of the American Fashion Association, the surveyed companies purchase from 51 countries and regions around the world, and the number of procurement sources is the same as in 2017. Eight of the top 10 sourcing sources are from Asia, and all Asian sourcing sources increased their sourcing rates in 2018. The first place is China, with 100 per cent of the brands surveyed sourcing from China, while the second place is Vietnam, where 96 per cent of the brands are sourcing locally, reaching a record high. The third place is Indonesia, where 79% of brands purchase locally. The fourth place is India, where 75% of enterprises purchase locally. The fifth place is Bangladesh, where 75% of enterprises purchase locally. It is worth noting that there are also countries in the Americas in the top 10, reflecting the trend of the industry to return to the mainland and the Western Hemisphere. The ninth place is Mexico, with 50% of enterprises purchasing. The tenth place is the United States, with 46% of enterprises purchasing.

In 2018, imports of textile and apparel products in the United States increased. Clothing imports rose 2.8 percent year-on-year, fabrics 8.5 percent, manufactured goods 6.4 percent and yarn 6.5 percent.

The fastest growing source of procurement in 2.2018

In 2018, the share of U.S. apparel sourced from China was 41.9 percent, up 2.7 percent year-over-year. Vietnam ranked second, accounting for 13.3 percent of the market share, up 3.5 percent year on year.

The fastest-growing sources of procurement are concentrated in African countries, thanks to the duty-free benefits of trade preference arrangements. Ethiopia grew 89% year-on-year, ranking 32nd in imports. Ghana grew 42% year-on-year, ranking 43rd in imports. Egypt grew 19% year-on-year, ranking 19th in imports. Madagascar grew 17% year-on-year, ranking 28th in imports. Kenya grew 15% year-on-year, ranking 20th in imports.

According to the comprehensive score of market distance, procurement cost and social responsibility factors, the procurement sources with the highest comprehensive score are:Vietnam, China, Mexico and Central American Free Trade Agreement countries.

U.S. brands mainly take the following two measures to reduce the risk of trade friction. One is the diversification of procurement. Maintaining the diversity of purchasing destination countries will be the purchasing strategy of most brands in the next two years, and nearly 80% of buyers plan to maintain or increase the number of purchasing countries. Second, through low-cost logistics and other technical means, so that goods directly into the hands of consumers, reduce operating costs.

Speaking about the outlook for the future of U.S. trade policy, Julie Hughes expressed the following concerns and concerns:

The worst case scenario and the biggest threat is that the United States may impose a 10% to 25% tariff on all products imported from China.

※ customs and border defense to strengthen law enforcement.

The new North American Free Trade Agreement continues to advance.

※ may automatically raise taxes on steel and aluminum, which may trigger a global trade war.

The Trump administration is about to start negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement with Japan, and negotiations with the European Union and the United Kingdom are also in preparation. The next step will be to start negotiations with Africa (Kenya preferred), the Philippines, Brazil and Switzerland.

Where does the future confidence of China's textile industry come from?

Julie Hughes believes that the global textile and apparel industry is in a period of instability. From the tariff issue to the global uncertainties of Brexit, from corporate bankruptcy and restructuring to industry fluctuations such as store closure, to the ever-changing consumer demand, the entire industry is undergoing a profound change. She said that colleagues in the industry must maintain confidence and see the positive side from uncertainty in order to turn the crisis into an opportunity.

Cao Jiachang said that looking forward to the future, we are still full of confidence in the development of China's textile and garment foreign trade.

First, the "Belt and Road" initiative and the "China-Africa Industrialization Plan" will effectively strengthen China's core position in the textile and apparel supply chain in Asia and the world.Many enterprises to accelerate the pace of "going out", the layout of the global industrial chain. It is planned to increase the proportion of foreign production, rationally allocate international resources and avoid trade risks.

Second, from (OEM) OEM production to ODM (independent design and development) and OBM (own brand export) is the fundamental basis for China's textile and clothing to maintain export competitiveness.Many companies are actively exploring international marketing networks, and actively expanding the export of self-designed products and their own brands through international mergers and acquisitions, cross-border e-commerce, setting up studios overseas, exhibition rooms, and expanding wholesale and retail channels. Chinese designer brands have also begun To shine in the International Fashion Week, China's down jacket e-commerce brands even "screen" on overseas social media ".

Third, intelligent manufacturing and transformation and upgrading are the inevitable choices for enterprises to maintain their export competitive advantage.The integrity and production efficiency of China's textile and garment industry chain are beyond the reach of Southeast Asian countries. Garment production involves many details, and the supply of accessories is very important. For example, if zippers, buttons and other accessories are miscalculated before production, it only takes a few hours to supplement them in China, while in Southeast Asian countries, the production line needs to be shut down for at least two days to wait for the accessories to be in place. For some products with complex processes, the delivery time of Southeast Asian countries is at least one month slower than that of China. Therefore, fast fashion brands and brands with low inventory that need quick replenishment still have competitive advantages in China. In response to the changes in international textile and apparel consumption patterns and procurement needs in recent years, many outstanding companies have focused on high value-added links, upgraded to strengthen R & D and lean management, and invested a lot of money in equipment upgrades and intelligent transformations, which effectively improved the international competition of enterprises. force.

Fourth, the huge potential of China's domestic market provides a guarantee of survival for China's textile and garment industry.In 2018, the retail sales of clothing, shoes, hats, needles, and textiles in my country's units above designated size reached 1.37 trillion billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a cumulative increase of 4 times over ten years ago. In 2018, the per capita clothing consumption expenditure of Chinese residents was 1289 yuan, and the per capita consumption was less than US $200. There is still a lot of room for development from the textile and clothing consumption level of more than US $1000 in developed countries.