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What are the operating characteristics of China's chemical fiber industry in 2018 and what is the current development situation? How to treat the phenomenon that many large private chemical fiber enterprises have entered the refining field at the same time? When the delivery date of Barmag winding head is scheduled to 2021, how to treat this new round of investment heat? What are the key points that the chemical fiber industry should seize in 2019 and what key points should be paid attention?

A year's plan lies in spring. On March 11, the fifth enlarged meeting of the sixth China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and the high quality development forum of China's chemical fiber industry were held in Shanghai, and the above hot issues were analyzed and discussed in depth. A number of commendations were also held at the meeting, the 2018 China Chemical Fiber Industry Output Pre-ranking was released, the 2018 Chemical Fiber Masterbatch Industry Output Ranking was released, and the establishment of the "China Chemical Fiber Industry Association Dongjin Green Fiber Promotion Fund" was announced ". In addition, the meeting also announced that Chen Xinwei as vice president of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association.

Hundreds of guests from the Party Building Work Bureau of the SASAC Industry Association Chamber of Commerce, China Textile Industry Federation, Tsinghua University School of Economics and Management, Chemical Fiber Industry Technology Innovation Strategic Alliance and other units, as well as representatives of upstream and downstream enterprises in the chemical fiber industry chain attended the meeting.

Macro Sight

What are the operating characteristics of China's macro-economy in 2018?

Xu Xianchun, a professor at the School of Economics and Management of Tsinghua University and former deputy director of the National Bureau of Statistics, introduced some characteristics of my country's economic operation in 2018 at the meeting. He analyzed from seven perspectives: production, demand, income, price, structure, new kinetic energy and supply-side structural reform.

He pointed out that from the perspective of production, China's economic operation in 2018 showed the following characteristics: first, the added value of the tertiary industry played a major role in promoting economic growth; second, the growth rate of the added value of the three industries was lower than that of the previous year; third, while GDP maintained steady growth, the growth rate of the added value of some industries fluctuated greatly.

In 2018, the added value of the tertiary industry accounted for 52.2 percent, an increase of 0.3 percentage points over the previous year, and its contribution to economic growth reached 59.7 percent, 23.6 percentage points higher than that of the secondary industry. The proportion of added value of China's tertiary industry exceeded that of the secondary industry for the first time in 2013, exceeding 50 per cent of GDP in 2015, reaching 51.6 per cent and 51.9 per cent in 2016 and 2017, respectively, and the role of the tertiary industry in driving economic growth has been further enhanced.

In 2018, the growth rate of investment demand fell from the previous year, and its contribution to economic growth declined. Among them, manufacturing investment increased by 9.5 year-on-year, up 4.7 percentage points from the previous year. Net export demand turned from growth in the previous year to decline, and its contribution to economic growth turned from positive to negative.

In 2018, the contribution rate of consumer demand to economic growth was 76.2, and the contribution rate of investment demand to economic growth was 32.4. Taken together, the contribution rate of domestic demand to economic growth reached 108.6. Economic growth is driven by domestic demand, especially The contribution rate of consumer demand is close to 80%, which plays a major role in driving economic growth.

In 2018, the growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size fell significantly from the previous year. The total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 10.3 year-on-year, and the growth rate was 10.7 percentage points lower than the previous year. In 2018, the growth rate of total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size dropped significantly compared with the previous year. The main reasons are as follows: First, the growth rate of industrial product sales fell. In 2018, the main business income of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 8.5, down 2.6 percentage points from the previous year. Second, product prices fell back. In 2018, factory prices for industrial producers rose by 3.5, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous year.

From the perspective of new kinetic energy, in 2018, my country's high-tech industries, strategic emerging industries, some emerging industrial products, and online retail sales maintained rapid growth, and new kinetic energy continued to accumulate. It is worth noting that some emerging industrial products maintained rapid growth, and bio-based chemical fiber revenue increased by 23.5 year-on-year. This part of the new kinetic energy growth is more gratifying, but they still account for a small volume of the economy.

Industry Depth

What are the characteristics of the economic operation of the chemical fiber industry in 2018?

Duan Xiaoping, vice president of the China Textile Industry Federation and president of the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, focused on analyzing the characteristics of the economic operation of the chemical fiber industry in 2018.

From the overall situation, the economic data of the chemical fiber industry in 2018 is still good, but 2019 is worrying. In 2017, the market of chemical fiber industry began to pick up; in 2018, the industry continued to grow on the basis of 2017. Therefore, in 2019, the industry is also facing certain pressure under the background of overall improvement.

In 2018, the chemical fiber market is running like a "roller coaster", especially the polyester industry is affected by factors such as crude oil prices. The operation of chemical fiber enterprises is divided, resources are further concentrated to the advantages of enterprises, the industry operation shows a "head effect", the industry will continue this trend in 2019. The resources here include capital, customer resources, government resources, etc. Small enterprises are facing financial pressure, and customer resources are further concentrated in large enterprises. At the same time, the ability of large enterprises to obtain government resources is far stronger than that of small enterprises.

The advantages of differentiation and market segmentation are further revealed, and the effect of "subdivision into kings" appears. Duan Xiaoping pointed out that Shenghong is a well differentiated enterprise among large polyester enterprises, and its economic benefits were relatively good in the fourth quarter of last year. When the market is good, the advantages of such enterprises may not be revealed, but when the market is not good, the advantages of enterprises with differentiated advantages like Sheng Hong can easily be revealed.

"This is the best reward for innovation. Enterprises should realize that a single product may be easy to imitate, but the innovation model formed over time is difficult to copy." End Xiaoping stressed.

It is also worth pointing out that the industrial chain collaboration is gradually strengthened, and the connection between chemical fiber companies and downstream brands is getting closer and closer. Many chemical fiber companies have established strategic partnerships with brands.

End Xiaoping analysis pointed out that when the chemical fiber industry from the seller's market to the buyer's market, in the context of the supply-side structural reform continues to advance, in recent years, the chemical fiber industry continues to promote the influence of fiber products in the downstream links.

"Five years ago, among the total number of people who participated in the China Fiber Fashion Trend Conference, the number of downstream companies was less than 1/5, but in 2018, the number of downstream customers accounted for more than 2/3. It can be said that the chemical fiber industry is no longer" Wang Po selling melons ". Downstream customers have gradually accepted the platform of China's fiber fashion trend release activities to select good chemical fiber products and enterprises. In the past, brands basically picked fabrics, but now many brands are starting to pick fibers. The branding of raw material suppliers and their close cooperation with terminal brands have become a trend, which is inseparable from the promotion of China's fiber fashion trend release activities and yarn exhibition." End Xiaoping stressed.

How do large chemical fiber groups enter the refining field?

In recent years, with the gradual liberalization of private capital in the national refining and chemical field, several large polyester enterprises, including Hengli Group, Hengyi Group, Rongsheng Group, Tongkun Group and Shenghong Group, have all set foot in refining and chemical projects, which has aroused great concern from all parties in the market.

How to treat this phenomenon? Duan Xiaoping at the meeting of private chemical fiber enterprises into the refining field of this phenomenon, given a high degree of affirmation: "We are full of confidence in this." He pointed out that the reasons for optimism mainly include three aspects:

First, the entry of chemical fiber enterprises into the refining industry will change the pattern of China's refining industry and even the world's refining industry. "In the late 1990 s, private chemical fiber companies entered the polyester industry. Their development to today, not only changed the pattern of China's polyester industry, but also changed the pattern of the world's polyester industry. Now, China's polyester has become the most competitive industry in the world's polyester industry. Later, when chemical fiber companies entered the PTA industry, the competitive landscape of the PTA industry in China and the world has changed. Therefore, when China's chemical fiber enterprises enter the refining industry, it will change the pattern of the world refining industry." Duan Xiaoping said.

Second, the chemical fiber enterprises currently entering the refining and chemical industry highlight the characteristics of the most economical unit investment, the largest equipment and the most advanced technology, which will provide the chemical fiber industry with good quality and cost-effective raw materials. it will also further benefit China's chemical fiber industry, which will ensure the competitiveness of China's chemical fiber industry to a considerable extent. When the overall competitiveness of the chemical fiber industry is improved, it will feed the upstream refining industry. This will create a positive interaction.

Third, at present, the chemical fiber enterprises in the refining and chemical project are large-scale enterprises. They have a complete industrial chain and strong anti-risk ability. Through the adjustment of their own multi-link load, they can achieve the goal of reducing risks and maximizing profits.

Summing up the development of the industry in the past year, Gao Yong, Secretary of the Party committee and Secretary General of the China Textile Industry Federation, pointed out that in the past year, all indicators of China's textile industry have entered a low growth stage. Although China's chemical fiber output exceeded 50 million tons last year, the growth rate of fiber processing volume of the whole textile industry remained at a low growth rate of about 3%, and China's textile industry has maintained a low growth state for three or four consecutive years. However, due to the accelerated pace of structural adjustment of the industry, the profit margin has maintained a good performance in recent years. Overall, China's textile industry is still in a stage of steady development. China's textile industry is a very high degree of marketization, and its development is in line with the law of economic development.

What are the key points of industry development in 2019?

At the meeting, Duan Xiaoping also focused on the development priorities of the chemical fiber industry in 2019.

First, continue to promote supply-side structural reform, in addition to innovation, to prevent excessive pressure on new capacity. "Barmag's winding head will not be delivered until 2021. The last time this happened was around 2010. At present, we remind enterprises to be rational. In recent years, the supply-side structural reform of the industry has finally achieved results. In addition, the current economy is still under pressure. If enterprises continue to work as hard as before, it will be worrying. Under the current circumstances, technological progress is accelerating, and the equipment currently ordered by enterprises is likely to become backward in two or three years, or will become second-rate equipment. Therefore, chemical fiber companies should order equipment in a cycle of 2 to 3 years, and implement phased and batch orders. In this way, on the one hand, it can ensure the advancement of technology and equipment, and on the other hand, it can ensure the premium ability of equipment manufacturers." Duan Xiaoping said.

The second is to continue to promote green development. In the next step, the industry should continue to do a good job in the upgrading and development of the ten major energy-saving and emission-reduction technologies, continue to do a good job in the certification and maintenance of green fibers, and continue to do a good job in the "Green Development Alliance (CV) of the regenerated cellulose fiber industry" Work and the industrialization of polyester green catalysts.

Take the work of "Green Development Alliance (CV) for Regenerated Cellulose Fiber Industry" as an example: the alliance was established in March 2018 and proposed to strive for three years to promote the green environmental protection level of CV alliance enterprises to reach the global leading level. Duan Xiaoping pointed out that regenerated cellulose fiber is the second largest chemical fiber variety and one of the important raw materials in the cotton spinning industry, but it is also the fiber variety with the greatest environmental pressure. There is no doubt that such a variety is very important to solve its survival and development problems. Therefore, the industry must walk on "two legs". One is to improve the traditional process and improve the level of energy saving and emission reduction; it cannot be eliminated in order to eliminate production capacity. This is also another form of waste, but to gradually improve the industry itself. Development level; it should also be recognized that the current new solvent process is still difficult to replace most of the production capacity of the regenerated cellulose fiber industry, and the change of the industry still takes a long time. The second is to further develop the new solvent spinning technology, that is, to further develop the lyocell fiber. "Whether it is China or the world, green development is a major trend." Duan Xiaoping said.

The third is to focus on artificial intelligence and big data. When information technology is injected into traditional industries, there will no longer be traditional industries in the traditional sense. This is also a "weapon" for my country's chemical fiber industry to compete with advanced markets ".

Duan Xiaoping pointed out that "artificial intelligence + industry" helps to give birth to new formats and business models. Artificial intelligence technology has been in the medical, industrial, agricultural, financial and other industries. In different industries, the presentation forms, application scenarios and the impact of artificial intelligence technology are also diversified. There are also differences in the acceptance of artificial intelligence in different industries. At present, big data, Internet applications, industrial robots, and intelligent commerce in the field of artificial intelligence provide key support for the textile and chemical fiber industry.

He pointed out that the application of artificial intelligence in the chemical fiber industry can be roughly divided into three stages: the first stage is to improve the degree of automation and reduce the labor intensity of workers; the second stage is the replacement of machines and the separation of man and machine; the third stage is to generate a large amount of data, process and apply the data.

"Machine substitution is the general trend. The progress of science and technology is changing human society. Traditional industries are facing the risk of elimination. Accelerating transformation and upgrading is the inevitable choice for the future development of manufacturing industry. Not only because of the rising labor costs, the use of machines and automation can not only solve the labor gap, but also improve efficiency, but also to achieve the effect of rapid manufacturing to meet individual needs. With the rapid development of artificial intelligence, Internet of things and cloud computing technology, the manufacturing industry will be more intelligent in the future. When users customize products, they can grasp the production progress of their own products at any time, or know when to place an order and which factory to place an order with. On the other hand, they can make more use of machine resources. So from the level of industrial enterprises, to enhance the level of automated production can preempt the market." Duan Xiaoping said.

Fourth, focus on new products. For example, industries and enterprises should further promote the localization of lyocell fiber and further develop polylactic acid fiber, corn fiber and other varieties. China's chemical fiber industry has made breakthroughs in dope coloring and low-temperature dyeing, and their industrialization is likely to accelerate in the future.

End Xiaoping also stressed that the industry should continue to pay attention to carbon fiber. Although carbon fiber is not a new product, the development of carbon fiber is related to the promotion of the status of China's textile industry.

"To make an inappropriate analogy, if China's textile industry is compared to 'table tennis, 'then carbon fiber is like the 'football' of the textile industry'. Our" table tennis "can be said to be invincible all over the world, but now the most important thing is" football '. Although my country's carbon fiber industry has made many achievements, there is still a certain gap with the world's most advanced level, so my country still has to work hard to develop carbon fiber." Duan Xiaoping said.

Five is to focus on national policy. Local enterprises should pay close attention to the relevant local policies, and pay attention to bringing good projects in the industry into the "basket" of national policies to seek better development.

Talking about the next development ideas of the industry, Gao Yong pointed out that for the chemical fiber industry, one is to speed up the structural adjustment of traditional products, achieve differentiation, and promote the high-quality development of enterprises; the second is to promote the realization of functional fiber and green fiber products Rapid development, especially to accelerate the further development of high-performance fibers, and continuously expand its output and application.

Announced the establishment of the "Green Fiber Promotion Fund"

This year is the third anniversary of the "green fiber" mark certification work. He Yanli, vice president of China Chemical Fiber Industry Association, focused on the significance of "building a new brand of green fiber logo" at the meeting.

He Yanli pointed out that the textile industry to achieve green transformation and upgrading, the green process of fiber manufacturing is a key link. Green, low-carbon and recycling are important tasks for China's chemical fiber industry and even the textile industry to achieve sustainable development. Giving full play to the conduction and driving role of the green fiber mark as the source of textile can promote the greening process of the whole industrial chain from fiber to terminal products.

He Yanli introduced that green fiber refers to chemical fibers that are derived from biomass and recyclable raw materials, low-carbon and environmentally friendly in the production process, and no pollution to the environment after the finished product is discarded or renewable and recycled. The green fiber certification mark is a certification trademark registered by the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration. The China Chemical Fiber Industry Association is the holder of the green fiber mark and enjoys the exclusive right to the trademark of the green fiber mark. The Consumer Goods Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology is the certification guidance unit.

"if more enterprises can meet the standard of green fiber, the green level of the chemical fiber industry will be higher, and it will also better promote the green development level of downstream enterprises, so that the vision of driving the green development of the whole industry chain from fiber can be realized."

In order to further strengthen the publicity and promotion of green fiber certification, improve the credibility and social awareness of green fiber certification, and speed up the transmission of green fiber to downstream textiles, so as to realize the goal of promoting the green process of chemical fiber industry and driving the green, low-carbon and circular development of textile industry chain, The establishment of "China Chemical Fiber Industry Association · Dongjin green fiber promotion fund" was announced at the meeting ". "China Chemical Fiber Industry Association Dongjin Green Fiber Promotion Fund" is an industry public welfare fund jointly initiated by China Chemical Fiber Industry Association and Anhui Dongjin Resources Renewable Technology Co., Ltd. It was established by Anhui Dongjin donation with a total fund size of 12 million yuan.

"Development of green finance, the establishment of green development fund" has been included in the national "13th Five-Year" development plan. In 2016, the Ministry of Finance and other seven ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Building a Green Financial System", which clearly stated: "Support social capital and international capital to establish various private green investment funds." The establishment of the Green Fiber Promotion Fund is in line with this policy. At the same time, the establishment of green fiber promotion fund also marks a new journey for the certification of green fiber logo.

2018 China Chemical Fiber Industry Output Pre-ranking Released

At the meeting, the China Chemical Fiber Association released a pre-ranking list of China's chemical fiber industry output in 2018.

This pre-ranking is based on the data from January to September 2018 reported by enterprises. The ranking list is divided into comprehensive ranking of chemical fibers and ranking of major sub-products. It is understood that the official ranking list will be released in June 2019 and will be ranked according to the data from January to December 2018 reported by enterprises.

In addition, China Chemical Fiber Association also awarded Ding Lan and other 52 people the honorary title of "2018 Outstanding Statistician in Chemical Fiber Industry.

2018 Chemical Fiber Masterbatch Industry Output Ranking Released

Since the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan", my country's stock solution colored fibers and functional fibers have achieved breakthrough development. The scientific, industrialized, and large-scale production of chemical fiber masterbatches has provided important support for the high-quality development of the textile and chemical fiber industry, which not only improves the whole The ability of green and sustainable development of the industrial chain also meets the functional needs of people yearning for a better life.

In order to promote the exchange and interaction between chemical fiber masterbatch and upstream and downstream enterprises, and strengthen the collaborative innovation of the industrial chain, the China Chemical Fiber Industry Association organized and carried out the output ranking of China's chemical fiber masterbatch industry in 2018. Suzhou Polaroid Materials Technology Co., Ltd. and other 10 enterprises entered the ranking (see list for details).

In recognition of the "Green Foundation" Green Contribution Golden Key Award

At the meeting, the China Chemical Fiber Association also commended the companies and individuals that won the 2018-2019 "China Chemical Fiber Industry Association · Green Yu Fund" Green Contribution Golden Key Award and green development leaders.

Among them, Xinfengming Group Co., Ltd., Ningbo Dafa Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Changle Hengshen Composite Fiber Technology Co., Ltd., Sinopec Yizheng Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Jilin Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Guangdong Mengtai High-tech Fiber Co., Ltd., Jiangsu Aoshen New Materials Co., Ltd., Xinjiang Fulida Fiber Co., Ltd., Chengdu Liya Fiber Co., Ltd. 9 companies won the "China Chemical Fiber Industry Association · Green Yu Fund" Green Contribution Golden Key Award.

Sun Yanlin of Tongkun Group Co., Ltd. and Qian Jun of Ningbo Dafa Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd. won the Green Contribution Golden Key Award of "China Chemical Fiber Industry Association · Lvyu Fund" Green Development Leader; li Xuemei of Chengdu Liya Fiber Co., Ltd., Yang Weizhong of Shanghai Defulun Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Zhou Xianhe of Zhejiang Shengyuan Chemical Fiber Co., Ltd., Ning Zuolong of Fujian Jinjiang Technology Co., Ltd. and Feng Wenjun of Xinjiang Fulida Fiber Co., Ltd. won the title of Green Development Leader of "China Chemical Fiber Industry Association Green Foundation" Green Contribution Golden Key Award.