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Recently, there is new news in the Sino-US economic and trade consultations: Gao Feng, a spokesman for the Ministry of Commerce, said on January 17 that at the invitation of US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin and trade negotiator Lighthizer,Vice Premier Liu HeHe will visit the United States from January 30 to 31 to hold consultations with the United States on economic and trade issues between the two countries and jointly promote the implementation of the important consensus reached by the two heads of state.This should be a relatively good news for China's textile and garment export enterprises facing many uncertain factors.

According to statistics, the monthly growth rate of China's textile and clothing exports has decreased significantly since October 2018. In December 2018, the overall export of China's textile industry showed negative growth again year on year. According to statistics released by the customs, in US dollars, in December 2018, China's textile and clothing exports were 231.$1.7 billion, a decrease of 3.65 percent. Of which, exports of textiles (including textile yarns, fabrics and products) were 98.$8.2 billion, down 2.63 per cent year-on-year, the first year-on-year decline since April 2018; exports of clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) were 132.$3.5 billion, down 4.39%, compared with the previous month to further expand the decline.

However, according to customs statistics,From January to December 2018, the country's total textile and apparel exports totaled US $276.731 billion billion, an increase of 3.52 percent over the same period last year, and exports continued to maintain positive growth throughout the year.Among them, the total export volume of textiles was 119.098 billion US dollars, up 8.12 percent year-on-year; the total export volume of clothing was 157.633 billion US dollars, up 0.29 percent year-on-year. Judging from the general trend, the current long-term stable and positive development momentum of my country's domestic economy has not changed. A series of policies and measures have been introduced around the stability of foreign trade, and their effects are gradually showing, laying a solid policy foundation for the development of foreign trade this year. With China's further opening up, it is expected that China's foreign trade development is expected to improve steadily this year.

Well, in this case,Where will China's textile and garment foreign trade situation go in 2019? How should export textile enterprises deal with it?

Sino-US trade friction still uncertain

RMB appreciation or unfavorable export

In 2018, many uncertainties of Sino-US trade friction have profoundly affected the export business of textile enterprises to the international market. In the first half of 2018, textile and clothing exports were relatively stable and increased slightly. The second half of the "change" is mainly reflected in the Sino-US trade friction caused by the psychological "panic" of textile enterprises, affecting clothing exports. Although the industry's exports performed well in September 2018, in fact, it was mainly the result of many orders "grabbing exports" in order to minimize losses in the context of Sino-US trade frictions. Since November, clothing exports have shown negative growth.

Some experts predict,In 2019, China's textile and clothing export environment is still facing greater uncertainty, considering that the U.S. government in 2019 to impose tariffs on China's $200 billion products is still maintained at 10%, it is expected that the textile and clothing export situation in 2019 is still not optimistic.

At the 14th Annual Meeting of the China Textile Round Table Forum,Gao Yong, Party Secretary and Secretary General of China Textile Industry FederationIt is said that although the textile and clothing products subject to tariffs imposed by the United States at this stage only account for about 9% of China's textile and clothing exports to the United States and 1.5 percent of China's total textile and clothing exports to the world, the uncertain rise in the trade environment has led to unstable industry expectations and a reduction in orders and production and sales of textile enterprises in the next year in the short term, in the medium and long term, it will have an important impact on the international procurement pattern and the international division of labor position and investment layout structure of China's textile industry.

In addition, entering 2019, the renminbi has continued to strengthen. Since January 9, the renminbi exchange rate has ushered in three consecutive rises, reaching a new high in the past six months. This is extremely unfavorable to China's textile and clothing exports, enterprises are bound to relatively improve the quotation of export products in the international market, bargaining power will be a certain challenge. some people in the industry speculate that,For every 1% appreciation of the renminbi, the textile industry's sales profit margin will fall by 2% to 6%.In the case of a 5% appreciation of the RMB, the profit margin of the textile industry will fall by at least 10%. If the foreign currency prices of export products are to remain unchanged, companies will have to squeeze profit margins, and the impact will be greater in the uncertain environment of Sino-US trade.

In this regard, China Textile Import and Export Chamber of Commerce related personsIt is suggested that enterprises should face the downward pressure of export, strive to transform and upgrade, and strive to enhance the comprehensive competitiveness of the industry through intelligent manufacturing, industrial chain integration and brand building.For example, by accelerating the creation of "machine substitution" and "smart factory", comprehensively improve production efficiency, product quality and intelligent manufacturing level, and consolidate the competitive advantage in the international market.

The relevant person said,China has reached 17 free trade agreements with 25 countries and regions worldwide, covering Europe, Asia, Oceania, South America and Africa. More than 95% of textile and clothing products between China and ASEAN have achieved two-way zero tariffs. This year, all Chinese products have entered the Australian market with zero tariffs.. Tariff cuts in these countries and regions have effectively promoted the rapid development of bilateral trade, which is beneficial to avoid the risk of Sino-US trade friction and broaden the export market.

For the recent appreciation of the RMB, textile and garment enterprises are not necessarily negative.In the face of the decline of the US dollar and the appreciation of the RMB, domestic textile and garment enterprises have adapted and have different solutions. One listed spinning company, due to its large export volume, has taken measures such as hedging to deal with exchange rate changes. Some analysts give countermeasures to avoid the risk of falling US dollar exchange rate: actively explore new foreign markets, reduce dependence on US dollars, and make rational use of financial derivatives market to avoid exchange rate risk.

There are also some textile and garment export enterprises that use raw materials and intermediate products from abroad, and most of their products are sold abroad. Therefore, the decline in the US dollar exchange rate and the appreciation of the RMB have little impact on them.

Consumption upgrade boosts import dividend

Export to domestic sales is not achieved overnight

In 2019, the uncertainty and complexity of the world economy will further increase, and the characteristics of the changing and worrying situation will further highlight the importance of the domestic market.

China has the largest and most dynamic textile and clothing consumer market in the world, which is the fundamental support for the sustained and healthy development of the textile industry.In 2016, China surpassed the United States for the first time to become the world's largest clothing retail market.According to the National Bureau of Statistics,In 2017, China's retail sales of clothing, shoes and hats were about US $200 billion billion, an increase of 7.8 percent over the same period last year and a cumulative increase of 3.8 times over 10 years ago.

Some experts believe that China may change from a big exporter to a big importer in the next 10 years, and China is changing from a big manufacturing country to a big consumer country. In this process, tariffs will be lowered. In 2018 alone, the comprehensive tariff will be reduced from 9.8.% To 7.5 percent. this expert predicted that,"Tariffs will be further adjusted in 2019, and China now has the strength to lower them again."

It can be seen that expanding imports is an inevitable demand for consumption upgrades. For example, the successful holding of my country's first International Import Expo last year greatly boosted consumer market confidence. In addition, from January 1, 2019, China has expanded preferential tax policies for cross-border e-commerce companies engaged in the trade of imported goods, and the scope of application of preferential cross-border import policies has been expanded to 37 cities, and the tax exemption limit for a single transaction has been increased to 5000 yuan. This reflects the general trend of the vigorous development of China's cross-border e-commerce, a new form of foreign trade.

It is worth noting that, according to relevant statistics,At present, my country's annual per capita clothing consumption expenditure is less than US $200, and there is still a gap between the textile and clothing consumption level of more than US $1000 in developed countries. This gap shows that whether China's export textile and clothing enterprises produce domestic products or switch to import trade, There is considerable room for development.

In 2019, China's textile and garment foreign trade enterprises should firmly seize these new opportunities and make breakthroughs in export to domestic sales.

However, whether foreign trade can be smoothly transferred to domestic sales and whether domestic and foreign trade can be docked as scheduled is related to whether the current textile and garment enterprises can smoothly achieve transformation and upgrading. For example, for some textile and garment trade enterprises that switch from export to import business, the domestic sales mode is mostly based on stores and shopping malls. There are many links and expenses in the sales process. Enterprises need to spend a lot of costs to dredge channels. However, stores are generally unwilling to introduce unfamiliar export brands based on marketing input costs, which makes it difficult for export products to be imported.

And for the other part of the textile clothing production enterprises from export to domestic sales, the difficulty is not small. A person in charge of a foreign trade enterprise in Nantong, Jiangsu Province, which is starting to establish its own home textile brand, said that in the past, he did not consider the issue of brand promotion, but now it is very different. The brand has become the thing that he is most concerned about, and the cost of operating its own brand is not low. In fact, this is not an example. For many enterprises engaged in textile and garment OEM in the eastern coastal areas, "one is engaged in design, the other is engaged in marketing, extending to the two ends of the 'smile curve'" has long been a hot topic of transformation, but at present, it seems that this is even more urgent.

And the good news is,Export-oriented textile and garment enterprises in Fujian, Guangdong, Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other regions are realizing the layout and penetration of the domestic market by building a perfect terminal network and creating a professional market.Some enterprises began to expand their sales channels through e-commerce. After touching the Internet, not only did their products open up their sales channels, but also their business ideas were updated. Other companies are making a fuss about refined services, such as developing clothing customization services, and focusing on functional clothing fields such as explosion-proof clothing and medical protective clothing. At the same time, many export-oriented enterprises began to actively participate in domestic related exhibitions, with the help of the exhibition platform to expand the brand and product influence.

However, enterprises should continue to adhere to the mature sales methods and strict standards of overseas operations when transferring to domestic sales, and should not relax at all just because it is the domestic market. In the final analysis, quality is still the fundamental to enter the market and stand firm.

There are ways to broaden the international market

Improving high quality is king

In 2019, it may be a watershed for China's textile and clothing foreign trade enterprises. Facing the rise of trade protectionism in the international market, the RMB exchange rate has increased since the beginning of the year, labor and other production costs have not decreased but increased, and the country's environmental protection requirements have become more and more stringent. For practical problems, foreign trade export enterprises need to fundamentally change their living conditions. Seeking breakthroughs in high quality is the magic weapon for enterprises to gain a foothold in the domestic and international markets.

For the product itself, high quality must be high standards.Yao Xiaoman, Vice Chairman of International Down and Feather Bureau and Chairman of China Down Industry Associationsaid that at present,China is the world's largest producer, exporter and consumer of down and its products, accounting for 70% to 80% of the global down trade market share, and must be in line with the international advanced level in terms of standards.To this end, last year, the China Down Industry Association Standard Committee issued the "High-quality Down Clothing" group standard. The indicators of this standard have reached or exceeded international standards, reflecting the strength and responsibility of the industry's development.

For export enterprises to expand the international market, high-quality products are the foundation to enhance the image of Chinese products. For example, the Russian market is an important springboard for China to enter the Eastern European and CIS markets. Opening up the Russian market will surely drive China's development of the Eastern European and CIS markets. However, there are also challenges in Sino-Russian economic and trade cooperation, and trade frictions occur more frequently, which are manifested in irregular trade operations, system and policy differences, asymmetric trade structure, and "gray customs clearance" issues. In this regard, experts suggest,The Russian market is gradually maturing. If Chinese businessmen want to gain a foothold, they must improve the quality of their products and establish their own brands. High quality is the key to future competition and a passport to mature markets.

This expert suggestsIn the future, the export of textiles and clothing to countries and regions along the "Belt and Road" will change from "extensive management" to "intensive cultivation", starting from specific countries, different ethnic groups, aesthetics, and consumption levels, and strengthen market segmentation research. Starting from "supply creates demand", we will expand a broader development space with more creative designs, designs and varieties, and better productions.

"Don't put eggs in the same basket" is the thinking that the current Sino-US trade friction brings to export-oriented textile enterprises. In 2019, many uncertainties in Sino-US trade have made export textile companies lack confidence in the development of bilateral markets. Therefore, broadening the international market has become an important part of export companies' consideration of international business this year. There are mainly two aspects involved here.

One is the production division layout.Compared with the export-oriented enterprises with domestic production capacity, the leading textile and garment enterprises with global production capacity are relatively less affected by trade friction and have stronger anti risk ability. The head of a Shanghai textile export enterprise to the United States said that this year, it will step up efforts to transfer the supply chain to Southeast Asia and Africa, so as to reduce many uncertain risks of Sino US trade. There are also some large textile and garment export enterprises that have relatively complete industrial chains. In response to the "Belt and Road" initiative, they have cooperated with the governments and enterprises of the countries and regions along the route, and have built their own production bases and industrial parks locally to achieve international production. Division of labor layout.

Second, the international market layout.From the perspective of export, Chinese textile and garment enterprises have limited dependence on the US market. In 2017, China's textile and clothing exports amounted to US $268.6 billion billion, of which exports to the United States accounted for 17% of the total, still lower than the EU's 18.2. Take the current proportion of Hongdou Group's foreign trade business, the European market accounts for the largest proportion, reaching 50% to 60%, the US market accounts for 35%, and the Japanese market accounts for about 10% to 15%. The market distribution is relatively balanced. In order to better serve the European market, Hongdou Group set up a Spanish office to give full play to the advantages of overseas offices and communicate directly with customers face to face, achieving good results.