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The new version of the "Social Blue Book" (hereinafter referred to as the "Blue Book") recently released by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences focuses on the interpretation and analysis of the trend changes of the employment situation when analyzing and predicting the current social situation in China in 2018 and 2019. According to this, the reporter has an understanding of the employment trend of the textile industry.


1 overall stability of textile employment situation


The Blue Book pointed out that in 2018, my country's national economy was generally operating smoothly, and the national employment situation remained generally stable. At the same time, the employment structure continued to be optimized, and the number of employees in information transmission, software and information technology services, and cultural emerging industries ranked first year-on-year. Affected by external trade frictions, traditional labor-intensive industries such as toys, textiles and clothing, and leather products are under greater employment pressure.


The relevant person in charge of the China Textile Industry Federation said that the textile industry maintained a stable operating tone in 2018 and the overall employment situation was stable.


In terms of talent supply, the "Social Blue Book" shows that in the first three quarters of 2018, the total rural labor force for migrant workers was 181.35 million, an increase of 1.66 million over the same period last year, an increase of 0.9. In 2018, the number of fresh college graduates exceeded 8 million for the first time, reaching a high of 8.2 million.


In terms of talent demand, the overall national employment situation remained stable in 2018, and the scale of urban employment continued to expand. In the first three quarters, a total of 11.07 million new urban jobs were created. The employment situation of college graduates remained generally stable and stabilized. From the perspective of the whole year, in July 2018, due to the concentrated graduation of college graduates, the unemployment rate increased, but then decreased month by month. In September 2018, the unemployment rate of young people aged 20-24 and above decreased by 2.4 percentage points year-on-year.


Under the background of talent supply and demand, the total amount of labor resources in the textile industry has remained stable, while the employment rate of textile graduates in colleges and universities has remained stable.


According to the relevant person in charge of the Admissions and Employment Office of Tianjin Polytechnic University, the employment situation of fresh graduates in 2018 was the same as last year. The employment rate of textile engineering, non-woven materials and engineering, light chemical engineering and other majors reached 100 percent, and the employment rate of materials science and engineering, clothing design and engineering, clothing and apparel design reached more than 90%.


During the interview, the reporter learned that the employment rate of textile majors in Wuhan Textile University, Xi'an Polytechnic University and other universities was the same as last year, and the employment rate of clothing majors in Beijing Institute of Fashion Technology was better than in previous years.


2 structural adjustment gives rise to new demand for talents


The Blue Book pointed out that from a macro perspective, the basic characteristics of continued total employment pressure and prominent employment structural contradictions in the future will not change. At the same time, it will also face some new challenges and problems, mainly the profound adjustment of the population structure, the world economic structure and Factors such as the uncertainty of the external economic environment, new business formats and new technological changes have an extensive and profound impact on employment.


The impact of population structure adjustment, new formats and new technological changes on employment has been shown in the textile industry.


Under the changes in the general environment, with the increasing labor costs, textile enterprises continue to transform and adjust, or transfer production to areas with low labor costs, or reduce the number of employees and replace them with machines. Strengthening the development of textile digital and intelligent equipment, promoting the construction of intelligent workshops, cultivating and developing large-scale personalized customization, promoting the innovation of manufacturing mode and business model, and forming a new driving force for the development of textile economy has become one of the important goals of textile industry reform.


Take Hengli Group as an example, the company is one of the earliest enterprises in the industry to explore intelligent manufacturing. The group has gradually changed the development mode of the enterprise from "demographic dividend" to "technological dividend" by means of "machine for labor", "dynamic for machinery", "complete set for single set" and "intelligent for digital. The Group's weaving sector has introduced industry-leading automatic threading machines and automatic twisting machines to build intelligent production workshops for pretreatment, saving labor costs by 80% and improving efficiency by 700.


In recent years, Shenghong Group, which has actively adapted to the development trend of new technologies such as big data, cloud computing and artificial intelligence, has enabled enterprises to save 15 million yuan per year through the implementation of manufacturing "internet plus", machine substitution and Internet of Things technologies. A production line can save 127 employees, reduce the employment rate by 34%, reduce the failure rate by 55.9, increase the unit yield of personnel by 29.8, and increase the production capacity by 33%.


In addition to large enterprises such as Hengli and Shenghong, which promote intelligent manufacturing as a whole and reduce personnel and increase efficiency, many small and medium-sized enterprises in the textile industry have also begun to adopt more intelligent equipment and data management in some aspects of production and operation, so as to improve efficiency and reduce employment.


The Blue Book also pointed out that the impact of technological innovation on employment has two sides, both "substitution effect" and "creative effect". At present, the two effects are superimposed on the human resources market in China. The new technological revolution will adjust and optimize the job demand structure of the human resources market, alleviate the problem of excessive demand for general workers to a certain extent, and create more and more matching employment opportunities for college graduates, but at the same time, it also puts forward higher requirements for human capital. If the reform of higher education and vocational education cannot be followed up in time, the scale of technical and skilled personnel training cannot be expanded, and the "general" education and innovation and entrepreneurship education in computer and other disciplines are not strong enough. it will still be difficult to resolve the problem of employment for graduates of some colleges and majors, and there will be a serious shortage of compound, skilled, innovative and entrepreneurial labor force. The contradiction between technical unemployment and the shortage of high-level talents will exist at the same time.


Ms. Shen, manager of Jiangsu Guotai Yida Industrial Co., Ltd., said in an interview that with the transformation of the company's business in recent years, enterprises need compound talents with both textile professional background and foreign language or foreign trade, management and computer. In order to meet the demand, the company has launched a long-term talent transfer plan in cooperation with Soochow University.


The heads of Tianjin Polytechnic University, Wuhan Textile University and other institutions told the reporter of China Textile News that with the continuous upgrading of the industry, enterprises have more diversified requirements for talents.


According to Pan Aihua, deputy secretary of the Party Committee and deputy dean of the School of Textile and Garment Engineering of Soochow University, in order to meet the needs of talents for the rapid transformation of the textile industry, the college adjusts its talent training strategy in a timely manner, and integrates engineering practice and innovation ability training throughout the whole process of talent training. The main goal is to improve students' engineering practice ability and engineering research ability, relying on high-level teaching and research platforms such as national key disciplines, national experimental teaching demonstration centers, national virtual simulation experimental teaching centers, and modern silk national engineering laboratories, a set of high-quality textile engineering talents with innovative thinking and practical ability have been formed. Training system.


3 Pay close attention to the impact of external risks on employment.


The blue book points out that it is necessary to seize the opportunity of new economic development, vigorously develop new industries and new business type, develop a large number of high-quality jobs that adapt to the employment orientation of the new generation of labor force, and promote the high-quality development of employment and economy. at the same time, it is necessary to avoid the risk of unemployment caused by the instability in the development of new industries and new business type. For this, the advantages of the textile industry as a livelihood industry are still obvious.


As an important livelihood industry, the textile industry has created a large number of jobs. At present, more than 20 million people are employed in the whole industry. In 2015, 9.462 million people were employed in enterprises above designated size, accounting for 10% of the national industries above designated size. Most of the employees in the textile industry are rural migrant workers, and the whole industry provides more than 1000 million jobs and hundreds of billions of yuan in cash income for rural migrant workers every year.


The blue book also suggests that the anti-risk ability of traditional industries is essential to stabilize employment. The Blue Book points out that the direct impact of trade frictions on foreign trade production and operation enterprises may lead to operational difficulties in some enterprises in the short term and reduce jobs; the sustained development of economic and trade frictions may lead to the adjustment of supply chains on a global scale, and some related enterprises may re-layout production lines, which will have a deeper impact on China's employment growth and employment structure adjustment in a longer period of time.


Statistics show that the total number of employment in China's industrial sector has dropped from 99.772 million at its peak in December 2014 to 80.585 million in August 2018. Employment in technology industries, traditional advantageous industries and other manufacturing sectors has also declined to varying degrees, especially in labor-intensive traditional advantageous industries. A person from the Academy of Social Sciences said that this process actually occurred before the Sino-US economic and trade friction, so the decline in employment in China's industrial sector stems from the superposition of many factors. However, in terms of trends, the decline in 2018 has accelerated compared to 2015~2017, which is related to the negative impact of Sino-US trade frictions.


According to the analysis of relevant persons from the Academy of Social Sciences, more than 30% of China's exports to the United States are concentrated in traditional labor-intensive industries such as toys, furniture, textiles and clothing, leather products, and electrical equipment manufacturing. Foreign trade processing enterprises have almost no resistance to trade policy fluctuations. ability. Therefore, if the United States imposes higher tariffs, exports from these industries to the United States may stop. Moreover, due to the rising cost of land, labor and other factors, the processing trade with the contract system as the main method is in a state of "squeezing up and down" in the international industrial chain, and the resulting industrial migration may lead to a decline in the employment rate of some industries with higher dependence.


Ji Xiaofeng, secretary-general of the China Textile and Apparel Education Association, said in an interview with a reporter from China Textile News that external risks such as changes in the trade situation may have an impact on the employment of some textile general workers, but from the perspective of the distribution of higher vocational and college, 2018 There has been no significant fluctuations. At present, the demand for talents in technology and management in the industry is still urgent.