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According to Austrian media reports, the Austrian Central Bank (OeNB) recently released its latest economic forecast: the economic growth rate for this (2018) year will remain unchanged at 2.7, but the 2019 forecast will be revised down from 2.7 to 2%. Ewald Nowotny, president of the Austrian central bank, said that the bank's forecast for the economic trend next year is more conservative than that of the European central bank. although there are still some project indicators in Austria's overall economy that have performed well, it is inevitable that the economy will cool down.

(I) The overall economic performance forecast published by the Austrian Central Bank includes, in addition to the above-mentioned projected economic growth rates, the following items:

1. The unemployment rate has continued to decline and the number of full-time employees has increased:

It is estimated that Austria will add more than 70,000 jobs in 2018, up 1% from the same period last (2017) year, while the average working hours of new employees will grow by 2.2, that is, full-time job opportunities will also grow significantly. The Central Bank of Austria's unemployment rate forecasts for this year and the next three years are 2018 (4.9 per cent), 2019 (4.7 per cent), 2020 (4.7 per cent) and 2021 (4.5 per cent).

2. The private consumption boom is expected to remain sustainable until 2019:

Most of the salary negotiations in 2019 in various industries in Austria have been settled, and the salary growth rate of most salaried classes will be greater than that in 2018. In addition, the revised new regulation of "state subsidy for children's upbringing" will be implemented from next year. As the previous two "bullishness" will increase the disposable income of many Austrian households, the Austrian Central Bank predicts that private consumption will remain prosperous in 2019, with the forecast values for this year and the next three years: 2018 (1.7 per cent), 2019 (1.7 per cent), 2020 (1.6 per cent) and 2021 (1.5 per cent).

3. Export growth is likely to slow down, and the South-East European market has become a new pillar:

Germany is Austria's largest exporter and is also the locomotive driving the economic and trade growth of the euro zone. However, Germany's economy has shown signs of decline since the second half of 2018. Experts estimate that the economic growth rate in the fourth quarter may be only 0.3-0.5. The Bundesbank also revised the 2019 economic growth rate forecast from 1.9 to 1.6. Although Austria's exports to Germany declined from January to August before 2018, Austria's exports to Italy (the second largest exporter) and Switzerland grew by 6% during the same period, while the growth rate of exports to Eastern Europe was as high as 25%. The markets in Eastern and Southern Europe have become the new pillars of Austria's economic growth. The Central Bank of Austria forecasts export growth for this year and the next three years as follows: 2018 (4.2 per cent), 2019 (3.8 per cent), 2020 (4.0 per cent) and 2021 (3.7 per cent) (based on Austria's export growth rate of 4.6 per cent in 2017).

4. The manufacturing industry is not optimistic about the order taking situation in 2019, and corporate investment is becoming conservative:

According to a number of market polls, Austrian manufacturing managers are not optimistic about the prosperity of next year, and Austrian enterprises are also cautious about whether to invest in plant and equipment in the next two years. The Austrian Central Bank predicts that the growth rate of plant and equipment investment in manufacturing industry this year and the next 3 years will be 2018 (3.5), 2019 (2.6), 2020 (2.2) and 2021 (1.7) (the growth rate of plant and equipment investment in Austrian manufacturing industry in 2017 will be 3.8).

(ii) The Central Bank of Austria believes that the important international factors affecting the future prosperity of Austria are as follows:

1. Whether the German automobile industry remains prosperous:

The automobile industry is the locomotive of the German economy and is also inextricably linked to the Austrian economy. In recent years, the German automobile industry has been affected by the "diesel exhaust data scandal. In addition, the lack of professional talents has also caused the limitation of the development of the German automobile industry. It remains to be closely observed whether the depression of the automobile industry in the previous economic crisis will occur again in the future, which will affect the decline of other industries.

2. The trade conflict between the United States and other countries has clouded the global trade ridge. Whether it will become more and more intense in 2019 or will become one of the key factors affecting global economic growth.

(iii) The Central Bank of Austria calls on the Government to comply with a zero fiscal deficit:

The Austrian government announced a few days ago that this year's fiscal expenditure should be able to achieve zero deficit or even surplus. N, president of the Austrian central bank, urged that the Austrian government should not significantly increase next year's budget due to fiscal easing, but should reserve contingency resources for possible future economic crises.