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The textile market experienced ups and downs in 2018. At the end of the 2018, many market participants found that from multiple indicators, the textile market is facing a "life and death test".


The cold winter has arrived, and it is not only the temperature that has dropped.


There are textile people fiery heart





On December 9, snow fell in many cities across the country at the same time. On the same day, the Central Meteorological Observatory issued a blue warning of cold wave again, and most parts of the country ushered in a long period of cold weather, so down jackets and cotton-padded jacket became the first choice of the public, which ushered in some hope for the textile people who were waiting for the "cold winter" to celebrate the new year. But what about the facts?


Starting from the third quarter, the entire textile market has seen "cooling" signals such as a decline in industry prosperity, poor terminal orders, and rising manufacturer inventories.


As a "barometer" for judging the textile market, the monthly prosperity index of the "Ministry of Commerce China Shengze Chemical Fiber Index" shows that since June, the prosperity index has entered a downward channel and has fallen for six consecutive months, which is beyond the expectations of market participants. As we can see from the chart below, from 2010 to 2018, the second half of the year has never been imagined to decline.


The main reasons for this phenomenon are:


In the first three quarters, domestic and foreign brands hoarded more goods, resulting in autumn and winter fabric hoarding intention is not strong, domestic market demand contracted month-on-month.


8-9 months in the raw material PTA surge, pulling the polyester filament market surge, drag down the fabric market pricing mechanism.


From September to December, the price of raw materials has been declining, falling to the low point in recent years, which has restrained the mood of placing orders in the peak season. The insufficient acceptance of orders by manufacturers has led to poor production enthusiasm. The start-up of ammunition, warp knitting and circular machines has dropped significantly. The market atmosphere has also plummeted. The fact that the peak season is not prosperous has become a firm fact, making the "cold winter" in the textile market this year earlier and more violent than in previous years.


Shen Zong, head of a textile enterprise producing gallbladder cloth in Wujiang area, said: "No way, although the weather is cold, the market is colder. Now the downstream clothing business is generally afraid to stock up more, so we can only lower the quotation and sell some inventory to make this year a little more relaxed." And last year today, the gall cloth is obviously the market's "sweet pastry", price increases, grab goods, queue ...... Market conditions can be described with a lyric "you are like a fire in the winter, raging orders warm my heart"!


But this year, although there is a small wave of goods coming in the market around the 11th of the 12th of the month, it comes and goes quickly. The production capacity of gallbladder cloth is relatively large. A water jet loom can produce about 300 meters a day, that is, a manufacturer with 100 looms has to stock up 210000 meters without an order for a week. "The price of raw materials falls in price, gray cloth falls in price, and the stock is much more. This is the only way." Shen always frowns.


It can be seen that the cold winter has not taken away much sorrow, and the existing pain has been difficult to wipe out. In addition to Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Guangzhou, Fujian and other fabric clusters also performed poorly.


The market in Xiao Shao region continued to show a sluggish performance, and the shipment volume continued to decline slightly. It is reported that there are not many new orders from local trading companies, and weaving manufacturers are mainly clearing inventory. Dyeing factories have few orders and the delivery period is very fast;


There are not many orders in Hebei region. Although there are many inquiries and quotations, the orders are relatively slow. Medium and low yarn card products are the main transaction varieties, and there is still room for price reduction. Dyeing factory orders are obviously dissatisfied, and the delivery time is about one week.


"We also predicted that the market in the second half of this year will be the same as last year, at least it will not decline so obviously, but the actual situation is chilling. Although the overall annual sales volume is similar to that of last year, the market in the second half of this year is too poor." Dai Zong, a textile boss in Changxing area, said, "I'm afraid the market will be even worse next year!"


Will it be worse next year?


Be careful of these "time bombs" that "pit" you.





As the saying goes, "frozen three feet is not a day's cold", the second half of the market to make textile people feel desolate. Now OPEC's "official announcement" has reduced production, and the chemical fiber market has basically built a bottom. Fabric export orders have been urgently released before the Spring Festival. Coupled with the arrival of cold air, the cold winter prediction may come true. For the fabric market in 2019, there may be good support, but then, enterprises still have to beware of several irregular "bombs":


1. The trade situation between China and the United States has been suspended. Although it has boosted the foreign trade market, the 25% tariff increase is only a postponement of negotiations and has not been completely canceled. The follow-up still needs to pay attention to the negotiations in the next 90 days and whether the 10% tariff will be increased to 25%;


2, field looms have been launched, forming a greater impact on conventional chemical fiber products. Although the market is weak in the second half of the year, many textile bosses lament that it is very difficult to set up factories in other places, but the plant and equipment invested in the early stage cannot be discarded, and the market production capacity will rise little by little, which will have a greater impact on the market;


3. Crude oil, as the upstream of the chemical fiber industry chain, is also the product with the greatest uncertainty. It involves too many marginal politics, global economy and other factors. Prices often fluctuate greatly, which also affects the prices of bulk textile raw materials such as polyester filaments. Be cautious about the last wave of raw material hoarding before the Spring Festival, and accidentally you become the most real "catcher";


4. The textile and garment industry has returned from the commodity era to the product era, and the cost performance of fabric products will enter an extreme era. Although small profits and quick turnover are the correct ideas for sales over the years, making products bigger and stronger has become a "sharp weapon" for many enterprises to take orders ". When you are standing still, others are already running ahead.