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Recently, the General Department of the Ministry of Commerce and the Institute of International Trade and Economic Cooperation jointly released the "Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation (2018autumn). The report reviews2018The performance of China's foreign trade in the first three quarters of the year, looking forward to2018Year-round and2019The development trend of China's foreign trade in. The data show that China's exports to the United States have not declined, but increased.

Sino-US trade continues to grow

In the first three quarters, China's total import and export of goods in RMB 22.28Trillion yuan, year-on-year growth9.9%. Among them, export11.86Trillion yuan, growth6.5%, import10.43Trillion yuan, growth14.1%; surplus1.43 Trillion yuan, narrowing 28.3%. Clothing, toys, etc7Total exports of large categories of labor-intensive products2.29Trillion yuan, down year-on-year0.8%, as a percentage of total exports19.3%.

The report emphasizes that the current economic and trade frictions between China and the United States have limited impact and the overall risk is controllable. In the first three quarters, China's imports and exports to the United States3.06Trillion yuan, growth6.5%, accounting for China's total foreign trade13.8%The United States remains China's second largest trading partner. Among them, China's exports to the United States2.27Trillion yuan, growth 7.4%Imports from the United States7981.3Billions of dollars, growth3.8%. From the data point of view, Sino-US trade is still growing.

The export situation in the field of textile and clothing is basically consistent with the overall situation. According to customs express data,1~9In January, China's total exports of textiles and clothing (excluding94chapter)2077.7Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth4.6%The growth rate is higher than the same period last year.3.7Percentage points, compared with the first half of this year to continue to accelerate1.3percentage point.

The latest data show that customs statistics,10Total national textile and garment exports in January232.57Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth7.33%(YoY growth in RMB11.57%). Among them, textile exports in the month97.44Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth5.88%(YoY growth in RMB10.04%); clothing export in the month135.13Billion US dollars, achieving year-on-year growth8.4%(YoY growth in RMB12.70%), continue to maintain the growth trend since 2H20.

This year1~10In January, the country's cumulative total exports of textiles and clothing2308.05US $billion, an increase over the same period last year.4.77%(YoY growth in RMB0.48%). Among them, the cumulative total exports of textiles989.72Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth9.91%(YoY growth in RMB5.2%), a higher growth rate1~9Monthly decline0.54%, a slight slowdown; total cumulative exports of clothing1318.34Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth1.22%(Year-on-year decline in RMB terms2.79%）。

Look at the export market,1~9In January, China's exports of textile raw materials and textiles and clothing to the United States, the European Union and Japan increased year-on-year, respectively.8.5%,3.4%and4.8%The growth rate of exports to the United States increased from the same period last year.9.1Percentage points; exports to countries along the "Belt and Road" such as Vietnam, Turkey, and Indonesia have grown well, and exports have increased year-on-year respectively30%,5.7%and21.6%.

According to the Report on China's Foreign Trade Situation (2018Autumn) "analysis, the growth is mainly due to the following factors. One is the growth of domestic market demand in the United States.2018Since 2007, the U.S. economy has maintained rapid growth, the unemployment rate has dropped to a new low in decades, the consumer confidence of residents has increased, the investment confidence of enterprises has increased, and the overall domestic market demand is relatively strong, which has led to the rapid growth of demand for imported goods. Before8Month-on-month, U.S. merchandise imports increased year-on-year.9.5%, the growth rate is higher2017Year-over-year increase3percentage point. Accordingly, the demand for imports of Chinese goods in the US market is also expanding.

Second, the Sino-US industrial chain is closely linked. On the whole, China's industrial chain is complete, its manufacturing capacity is strong, and its products are cost-effective. The United States has developed technology, rich resources, and high per capita income. The bilateral economic structure is highly complementary, and there are many trade opportunities. The market choice has allowed the two countries to form "You have me, I have you" interest pattern. Especially for American consumers, Chinese goods are the first choice for daily consumer goods.

Third, import and export enterprises to perform the contract. In international trade, there is generally a time lag of several months or even longer from the signing of a contract to the actual import and export. After the United States imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, most of the contracts originally signed by the companies of both sides continued to perform, making the import and export data basically stable. Especially in order to prepare for the sales of the peak consumption season in the fourth quarter, enterprises stock up in advance, which plays a supporting role in bilateral trade.

The report believes that the current international market demand is relatively stable, domestic import demand is growing steadily, and China's foreign trade has the basic conditions to maintain steady growth. The rapid growth of imports and exports in the first three quarters provided strong support for the growth of foreign trade throughout the year. But...2017The high import and export base in the fourth quarter of the year will have a significant impact on2018The growth rate of imports and exports in the fourth quarter of the year had a certain adverse impact.

The report states that,2019China's foreign trade development is facing a more severe and complex environment, the downside risks of the world economy are increasing, and protectionism threatens the stable growth of global trade. At present, the fundamentals of my country's foreign trade development are good, and the policy environment is constantly improving, which contains new development potential. It is necessary to actively cultivate new trade formats and new models, and strive to maintain the steady development and quality improvement of foreign trade.

How does the barometer react?

For2019The Canton Fair, which has always been known as the barometer of import and export trade, reminds export enterprises that Sino-US trade friction still brings great uncertainty to Sino-US bilateral economic and trade relations and even the world.

Section124The Canton Fair in11Month4Sunset down the curtain. According to statistics, the current Canton Fair cumulative export transactions2064.94RMB 100 million (equivalent298.6billion dollars), down year-on-year1%; export turnover to the U.S. declined year-on-year30.3%,27.9Billion US dollars; Export transactions to countries and regions along the "the belt and road initiative"96.3Billion US dollars, year-on-year growth2.7%, as a percentage of the total turnover32.3%.

In addition, the National Bureau of Statistics published10MonthPMIIn the data, the export new orders index has hit a record.2016From the results of the entrepreneur survey, the impact of the Sino-US trade war has begun to show.

It is reported that among the export commodities of this year's Canton Fair, mechanical and electrical commodities are still ranked first in transactions, followed by light industrial products, of which textiles and clothing are traded.15.14US $billion, accounting for the total turnover.5.1%. Xu Bing, a spokesperson for the Canton Fair, said that in the face of a severe and complex external environment, exhibitors have implemented a market diversification strategy. While consolidating traditional markets, they have worked hard to open up emerging markets and continuously optimize the market structure. "Made in China" is changing to "Made in China" and "Created in China.

It is for this reason that domestic textile enterprises dare not take it lightly. At this Canton Fair, Zhejiang Tongxiang Zhongxiang Textile Co., Ltd. showedOUTLASTThe product of technology-can regulate the skin surface microclimate in both directions. This material absorbs heat when the skin feels too hot, and releases heat when the surface of the skin is too cold. The company's foreign trade manager said that the company is constantly looking for novel fabric materials and lining characteristics to develop cost-effective products. Only by independent innovation of products and promoting the transformation and upgrading of enterprises can we gain a firm foothold in the fierce market competition.

Industry experts say next year1Month1From now on, the United States will impose a levy on some products.10%Tariffs increased25%It has increased the concerns of American buyers, and from a medium and long-term perspective, it has shaken the international supply chain that China's textile industry has established a scale advantage. The significant impact on textile and apparel exports is expected to be concentrated in the first half of next year.