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Since the second quarter of this year, the escalating trade war friction between China and the United States has brought tremendous pressure on textile and clothing exports, while the relative strength of the US dollar and the accelerated depreciation of the RMB during the same period, especially since mid-June, there has been a wave of sustained and rapid depreciation. In RMB terms, China's textile and clothing exports totaled 990.2 billion yuan from January to July 2018, down 3.26 percent from the same period last year. Some people in the industry believe that the trade friction between China and the United States is heating up, the market risk aversion has increased, the stock, commodity and foreign exchange markets have plummeted, and the bond market has soared. The United States as China's largest exporter of textiles and clothing, Sino-US trade friction will be China's textile and clothing exports constitute a significant negative.

"The list of US tax increases on China's $200 billion products involves textiles and clothing related to people's livelihood, and textile and clothing exports may be doomed." An Guang, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that the tax increase list shows that almost all products related to textiles and clothing, such as chemical fiber, cotton, silk and leather, are within the scope of the tax increase, while China's textile and clothing industry is heavily dependent on exports. the tax increase will hit China's textile and clothing industry's exports to the United States.

Yu Xiaohong, an analyst at Zhongyu Information, said that China is the largest exporter of textiles and clothing, and the proportion of textile and clothing exports in China's total foreign trade remains at about 13%. China's top 10 export markets for textiles and clothing are the United States (17%), Japan (8%), Hong Kong (6%), Vietnam (5%), the United Kingdom (4%), Germany (3%), South Korea (3%), Russia (3%), the Philippines (2%) and the United Arab Emirates (2%). In 2017, China's exports to the United States accounted for 15.5 percent of total textile and apparel exports.

"In 2018, the U.S. dollar strengthened and the U.S. launched trade frictions. The currencies of some emerging economies continued to depreciate, including Argentina, Turkey, and India. The exchange rate of China's Hong Kong dollar against the U.S. dollar was at a low point in the past 35 years, and the renminbi continued to depreciate." An Guang said that trade frictions are persistent, and it is expected that the renminbi will continue to depreciate. Although it is good for the export-oriented textile and apparel industry, the US tax increase on textile and apparel products will cause the export volume and price of China's textile and apparel industry to be suppressed, which may completely offset the renminbi. The devaluation is good for textile and apparel exports.

The textile and garment industry is a labor-intensive industry. In recent years, China's demographic dividend has gradually disappeared, and the textile and garment industry has shifted to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam. "The U.S. officially increases taxes on Chinese textile and apparel products, the U.S. is bound to increase imports of textile and apparel products from Southeast Asian countries, mainly Vietnam, to replace imports of Chinese textile and apparel products, just as China increases imports of soybeans to Brazil and other countries to partially replace the U.S. soybeans that have risen after taxes. Zhongyu Information believes that Vietnam and other emerging textile and apparel exporting countries may be the biggest beneficiaries of this trade war." An Guang said.

"While trade frictions escalate and U.S. tariff increases increase costs to China, yet the U.S. textile and apparel industry is less likely to face high labor costs in the face of a severe contraction in the context of production and manufacturing backflow. At this point, China's loss will be a shift in U.S. orders." Yu Xiaohong said that the main importers of textiles and clothing in the United States are China, India, Vietnam, Pakistan, Mexico, Bangladesh, Indonesia, South Korea, Honduras and Canada. Among the relatively large number of trading partners, Vietnam, as the second largest textile and apparel import market in the United States, is most likely to reap profits because of its relatively complete industrial facilities, low production costs, and abundant labor.

Yu Xiaohong emphasized that Sino-US trade frictions will undoubtedly be a big challenge to the textile and apparel industry, but it is not only Chinese companies that are affected by Sino-US trade frictions. In fact, more American companies will face the huge impact of the trade war. Economic integration has been inseparable. In the future, China will take a series of measures to safeguard relevant interests, stabilize the RMB exchange rate and maintain sustainable economic development.